敏華控股(1999.HK)：內銷提速、盈利改善，下半財年北美市場好轉在即，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
公司披露2020財年中期業績，驗證兩大因素：內銷轉好、盈利改善公司披露2020財年中期業績，報告期內公司實現營業收入55.93億港元（YoY+1.92%），歸母淨利潤7.06億港元（YoY+6.07%）。公司金融資產公允價值變動及匯兑損益產生其他收益7680萬港元，增厚公司淨利潤。分市場來看，中國市場收入為28.95億港元（YoY+11.8%），北美市場收入16.26億港元（YoY-22.9%），歐洲及其他海外市場收入4.32億港元（YoY+10.7%），HomeGroup收入3.55億港元（YoY-10.2%），此外報告期內公司銷售住宅物業等產生額外收入2.84億港元。原材料方面，由於下游鞋革、汽車革等需求相對低迷，因此真皮價格降到歷史低位；而化學品、鋼材等大宗商品，由於全球經濟發展的不確定性，報告期內呈現明顯的回落，預計未來也將持續保持低位。根據公司中期業績披露，真皮、鐵架、化學品平均單位成本下降幅度超10%，包裝材料下降幅度達到27.4%。盈利能力方面，受益於原材料價格同比下降，公司2020H1綜合毛利率為35%（同比-2.8pct）。具體而言，中國市場業務毛利率39.3%（同比+1.4pct），北美市場業務毛利率31.9%（同比+3.8pct）。
下半年核心關注越南產能釋放，對美訂單回升增長轉正
美國功能沙發需求依然大量依賴於我國產能供給，中短期難以找到其他可替代的大規模生產地。敏華控股縱向一體化成本優勢領先，在越南建設產能抵禦衝擊，在貿易格局變化中與中小廠商拉開差距，通過搶佔其他中小廠商份額，有望在出口中取得更高份額。截止報告期末，公司已轉移大半對美產能至越南，預計2020財年末完成絕大部分產能轉移。
盈利預測與投資建議
長期看好公司產品的全球競爭力，預計公司2020~2022財年的歸母淨利潤為15.2、17.7、20.7億港元，11月15日最新收盤價對應PE13.2、11.3、9.7倍。公司2020財年各項因素好轉，預計財年末公司對美市場產能基本全部轉移至越南後，估值壓制因素逐步消除，PE倍數逐步向歷史估值方向修復。參考公司歷史估值水平，上調公司合理估值至2020年14倍PE，對應合理價值5.60港元/股，維持公司“買入”評級。
風險提示
匯率大幅波動和原材料價格大幅波動影響公司利潤率的風險；新業務拓展不及預期；貿易爭端演化具有不確定性的風險。
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