綠葉製藥(2186.HK):新藥研發取得突破,業績持續增長,價值低估,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級,目標價9.66港元
機構:國元證券
評級:買入
目標價:9.66港元
投資要點
新藥研發取得突破
利培酮微球已經完成了中、美臨牀試驗,其生產基地通過了FDA的PAI檢查。LY01008(VEGF單抗)已於2019年5月在中國完成與Avastin療效和安全性對比的III期臨牀試驗的入組,共計入組648例患者,已完成主要指標客觀緩解率的觀察,為適用於非小細胞肺癌或結腸直腸癌的單抗。公司掌握長效及緩釋技術、脂質體及靶向給藥、透皮釋藥系統及新型化合物四大技術平台共七項技術,產品研發分國內和海外兩條產品線進行,海外研發的主要方向是中樞神經用藥,在5款臨牀三期或待批准的藥物。國內研發8款進入臨牀三期或待批准的藥物中,抗腫瘤用藥有2款,中樞神經系統用藥有5款。
力樸素有望保持增長,血脂康增速有望加快
力樸素作為國內首個且唯一獲批准銷售的紫杉醇脂質體產品,相比傳統紫杉醇擁有治療效率高、毒副作用小的特點。該產品在2019年上半年實現了12.7億元的銷售收入,同比增長29.9%,寫入2019年肺癌及食管癌診療指南。在國內藥企的白蛋白紫杉醇2018年進入市場之後,力樸素依然保持了較快的增長。2019年11月的國家醫保目錄談判,因為目前白蛋白紫杉醇未進入醫保,公司對降價幅度有一定的可選擇空間。而且目前市場已經充分反應了價格下降的預期,我們認為力樸素還是可以保持增長。授予阿斯利康血脂康膠囊推廣權以來,血脂康的營收同比增長了33%並在2019年上半年達到2.31億元。
首次覆蓋給予買入評級,目標價9.66港元
公司研發取得突破,在研產品豐富,現有產品還能保持較快增長,2019-2021年EPS分別為0.48、0.58、0.69元。給與目標價9.66港元,對應2020年15倍PE,較現價有42.58%的漲幅空間,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。

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