凱基證券:降金山軟件(3888.HK)評級至“持有” 指已反映分拆影響籲獲利了結
凱基證券發表報告表示,金山軟件(03888.HK)股價已自9月上漲超過35%,認為市場已大抵反映公司分拆的影響,建議投資者獲利了結,並靜待更低的進場點,下調對金山軟件的評級至“持有”,但該行上調對其目標價由原來17.6港元升至19.8港元,此據總合法估值。
該行將金山軟件調整後淨利潤上修196%、26%,以反映營利率優於預期,有監於北京辦公軟件(金山辦公(688111.SH))預定今日在內地科創板上市,該行將辦公軟件業務估值法,改按所持股份計算市值並給予折價。
凱基證券表示,金山軟件第三季經調整淨利潤錄1.84億人民幣,按年升146.9%,從今年第二季虧損3,200萬人民幣轉盈,表現優於市場及該行預期。該行指,公司雲業務於第三季毛利率已轉正,且部份垂直行業利潤率有所改善,上季深入滲透政府雲市場,取得天津市西青區、赤壁市與成都市雙流區的雲項目,料雲務全年營收約按年升70%。
該行指,金山軟件旗下游戲穩健規劃中,但競爭依然激烈,自10月底推出更新版後,《劍網三》手遊收入排名已回升至30-100名,公司表示2至3個月後還將推出另一款更新版。據Appannie數據,《劍俠情緣》排名大抵持穩於20至70名。公司料2019年線上遊戲營收將衰退個位數(前估衰退10%)。不過由於內地手遊市場競爭激烈,該行對金山軟件明年遊戲營收能否回升仍保守以待。

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