安踏體育(2020.HK) ：出售Amer少數股權一舉兩得，看好公司中長期增長空間，維持“買入”評級
機構：東方證券
評級：買入
目標價：77.7港幣
事件：根據11月12日公告，公司間接出售5%Amer Sports權益至超鴻（安踏4名執行董事控制），晉富（安踏管理層控制）、紅杉SPV和ZWC，四方將分別持股2.67%、0.83%、1.13%和0.38%，均為無投票權的B股，總代價約1.33億歐元，價值公允。同時公司轉讓0.25%JVCo權益至方源資本，總代價約670萬歐元。
核心觀點
我們認為本次股權轉讓對公司未來發展整體偏正面：（1）一方面，安踏董事和管理層通過自有資金入股Amer，實現利益綁定，表明集團內部對Amer長期發展的看好，也有利於後續Amer業務的有效整合和推進。四名執行董事（丁世忠、賴世賢、吳永華和鄭捷）深度參與Amer的收購與戰略制定，管理層也將在Amer未來的調整和擴張中起到重要作用。我們認為此次入股能幫助安踏的董事和管理層更好地推進Amer業務的發展，保證雙方長期利益的一致性。（2）另一方面，新進投資者紅杉和ZWC以無投票權形式加入，顯示了市場機構對Amer未來發展的信心，同時有望給Amer對接豐富的全球產業資源，有利於Amer業務的拓展。紅杉和ZWC均為業內優秀的私募股權基金，它們的入股能給Amer在經營和發展上提出寶貴建議，也能為Amer對接豐富產業資源。兩家基金願意接受無表決權的B股，表明外界對本次收購的看好，同時也有效避免對現有董事會和決策體系的衝擊。
公司基本面表現仍然強勁。公司雙十一全天流水同比增長63%，其中安踏品牌成交額位列行業第三，FILA品牌位列第五（今年超過彪馬上升一名）。此前披露的三季度零售運營數據也非常亮眼，安踏品牌同比增長10%-20%中段，環比提速；FILA品牌同比增長50%-55%（由於去年高基數環比增速放緩），但電商增速仍高達80%。通過多年的自主品牌培育和收購整合，公司將逐步躋身世界頂級的運動服飾集團。在行業本身高景氣和強者愈強的競爭屬性下，我們繼續看好公司。
財務預測與投資建議
我們維持公司的盈利預測，2019-2021的每股收益分別為2.09元、2.65元和3.20元，參考可比公司估值，給予公司2019年33.8倍的市盈率，對應目標價為77.7港幣（70.5元人民幣），維持公司“買入”評級。
風險提示：專業運動和潮流時尚風格輪動對銷售的影響，國際併購和多品牌發展的管理挑戰和財務波動，經濟減速，開店速度、店效、毛利率不及預期等。
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