達利食品(3799.HK):綜合食品飲料龍頭,積極佈局家庭消費市場,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
核心觀點:
公司是中國綜合食品飲料龍頭,產能和經銷網絡遍佈全國
公司兩大業務為食品和飲料,旗下"達利園"、"好吃點"、"可比克"、"和其正"、"樂虎"、"豆本豆"、"美焙辰"等均為中國知名品牌。公司的核心競爭力是良好的產品結構和覆蓋全國的產能和經銷網絡。公司工廠遍及全國18個省份,250萬個銷售網點覆蓋大部分縣級市。預計公司渠道改革將逐步完成,新的渠道體系利於1.團隊的優化配置,提高專業度;2.公司渠道投放費用更加準確,提高銷售效率;3.提高了經銷商的專業度和公司產品的投放效率;4.利於產品的研發和推廣。
豆奶和短保產品有望將成為公司未來收入增長主要動力
公司對短保和豆奶佈局已經基本完成,依託公司規模和渠道優勢,預計豆奶和短保產品銷售將成為未來公司收入增長的主要動力。同時,公司也對膨化食品和其它糕點產品升級,改善產品結構,預計這些品類將繼續維持低速增長。飲料品類:功能飲料“樂虎”繼續維持積極營銷策略,增長將持續。公司沒有帶息負債,具有穩定且高於行業平均的ROE和ROA水平。
預計19-21年業績分別為0.29元/股、0.32元/股、0.33元/股
公司短保和豆奶兩大新品類渠道佈局已經基本成熟,預計將持續推動公司業績增長。預計公司2019-2021業績分別為0.29元/股,0.32元/股和0.33元/股,當前股價對應2019-2021年PE為16.01,14.79和14.03倍;預計未來三年公司收入增長穩定,基於市盈率分析法,我們給予2020年18倍PE的估值,合理價值為6.39港元/股,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示:1.新品銷售不及預期;2.原材料價格大幅上漲;3.食品安全問題。

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