海底撈(6862.HK):公司整體表現依舊穩健,餐飲新賽道全面佈局中,維持公司“買入”評級
機構:光大證券
評級:買入
◆公司整體運營狀況依舊穩健,新業態佈局中
我們近期和公司進行了交流,並實地調研了海底撈在鄭州和西安新開的兩家麪館。根據交流和調研情況,我們瞭解到公司整體運營依舊穩健,同時前瞻性地開始全方位佈局餐飲賽道。
◆門店加密中翻枱率微降,但不影響整體方向公司當前仍處於高速拓店階段,預計全年開店將略超300家;部分區域由於門店加密較快,同店翻枱率有所下降(例如一線城市中的北京、上海),但一線城市中密度較低的廣州同店翻枱率進一步提升。整體來看,公司運營情況依舊穩健。
◆原材料價格上漲影響可控,新品類推出有望提升ASP
雖然今年以來包括豬、牛、雞在內的肉類價格上漲劇烈,但海底撈在成本控制方面表現出色,肉類價格上漲對利潤率的影響遠小於肉價上漲的幅度。今年以來,公司對一些熱門地區翻枱率較高的門店酌情進行了提價,整體提價幅度為3%-5%。同時,今年以來公司也推出了一些高品質單價較高的單品,這些菜品除了可以提供給消費者更多樣化的選擇,也增加了菜品組合的價格。酒水方面,公司對推出之後頗受好評的啤酒進行了調價價格從9.9元提價至14元,並推出了包括咖啡調和飲品在內的一系列創新飲品。
◆佈局新業態,遠期藍圖構建中
除火鍋賽道外,海底撈開始全面佈局餐飲行業。新業態的嘗試主要分為體內孵化和體外收購兩個部分。體內孵化的鄭州和西安麪館相繼開業,在蜀海的強供應鏈支撐下,麪館的客單價比市場低20%-30%,充分做到好吃不貴;此外公司於11月5日公告擬收購[上海緣澍]、[Hao Noodle]和[上海好萃],開始嘗試進入偏高端的正餐賽道。
◆盈利預測與投資評級
我們維持 2019-2021年分別淨增加300/235/235家門店的預測,考慮到門店加密翻枱率微降,下調2019年營業收入預測至270.73億元,2020-2021年營收預測分別為380.96和477.36億元。考慮到原材料價格上漲壓力,下調2019年淨利預測至23.83億元,2020-2021年淨利預測分別為32.95和42.31億元,維持公司“買入”評級。
◆風險提示:港股市場近期調整風險較大,公司作為消費龍頭有一定調整壓力;開店速度不及預期;儲備店長面臨壓力;食品安全問題;原材料上漲過快。
業績預測和估值指標

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