政府经济顾问:难预测经济收缩持续时间 失业率上升压力大
政府公布本港第三季经济按年收缩2.9%,为十年来首次录得按年下跌。考虑到今年首三季经济实际收缩0.6%,及下行压力持续显着,政府将今年全年实质本地经济增长预测,由8月覆检时的0%至1%,下调至收缩1.3%。
政府经济顾问欧锡熊在记者会上表示,本港今年第二季经济按季录得轻微收缩,而收缩在第三季明显按季加大,显示经济开始衰退,而第四季情况亦未见明显好转。他指在2009年环球经济衰退及1998年亚洲金融风暴期间,经济衰退持续约四至五季,但目前造成经济转差的主要问题为社会事件,因此不容易用经济角度预测收缩会持续多久,需视乎社会情况而定。
他提到,本港第三季经季节性调整失业率微升至2.9%,但劳工市场情况有滞後时间,在经济表现进一步转差下,往後失业率有很大上升压力,预期失业率会上升一段时间,但幅度难以预测。
他称目前本港消费意慾低迷,私人消费在第四季预期会继续下跌,而亚洲金融风暴期间本地消费开支录五季下跌,1999年的失业率由年初的3%,一年间升至6%,未来失业率会升至甚麽水平,要视乎经济打击持续时间。
欧锡熊又指,政府早前推出三轮支援中小企措施,很多措施是无法量化成对经济增长的支持,但预期财政预算案加三轮支援措施对GDP有约2%的提振作用。政府未来亦会尽力支援中小企,有需要时会加大措施力度,希望可减少出现大规模结业情况。
投资意慾方面,他称早前一些调查显示商业机构十分悲观,但目前未见外国企业大规模转移在港投资。根据6月数字,以香港为企业地区总部或分公司的数目达9,000间,属新高,现时亦未见很多企业撤出香港。 ~
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