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中國人民保險集團(01339.HK):增加健康險和壽險上的折讓,下調至“中性“評級,目標價3.41港元
格隆匯 11-15 15:32

機構:國泰君安

評級:中性

目標價:3.41港元

人保集團(01339HK)的2019年首三季度未經審計的業績好於我們的預期。2019年第三季度的總保費同比增長10.9%至人民幣1,174億元,將2019年首三季度的增長拖低至12.3%。增長的放緩是因為車險保費在2019年第三季度2.0%的同比下滑。壽險錄得輕微的增長恢復,2019年第三季度保費同比增長8.6%至人民幣159億元。健康險保費保持了高速的增長。2019年第三季度的利潤方面,財險錄得66.7%的同比增長,同時壽險業實現了148.1%的同比增長。總體業績由於財險承保恢復而好於我們的預期。

人保壽險正採取措施增加代理人規模及改善產能,同時人保健康也正轉型成聚焦互聯網的專業健康險公司。在投資者開放日上,管理層介紹了“3411”轉型策略的進展。人保壽險方面,公司指出他們已經完成了組織變革和隊伍的融合,目前正致力於增加隊伍規模和提高代理人的產能。人保健康方面,它將採取專業化健康險公司的策略,不同於之前與人保壽險相同的發展道路。

下調人保集團的目標價至3.41港元並降低評級至“中性”。在分部加總估值中,我們調高了人保財險的2019年目標市淨率至1.33倍。但是,我們增加了對於壽險業務和健康險業務的折讓。另外,控股公司折讓也被調高。因此,我們的目標價定在3.41港元。考慮到車險上的不利因素和壽險及健康險轉型所需要花費的時間,我們將評級從“收集”降低至“中性”。

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