化工2019三季报业绩综述：前三季度营收小幅增长，盈利能力下滑，维持“同步大市”评级
机构：万联证券
评级：同步大市
投资要点:
2019Q1-Q3板块业绩呈下滑趋势，行业整体盈利能力大幅下滑。2019Q1-Q3中信基础化工行业实现整体营业总收入为10907.29亿元，同比增长2.43%；实现净利润737.18亿元，同比下滑24.53%，对比2011-2018年前三季度的营收和净利润水平，2019年至今的营收和净利润同比增速均处于历史低位，且净利润出现了2012年以来的首次负增长。2019Q1-Q3中信基础化工的ROE为7.02%，同比下滑30.97%，下滑幅度仅次于2012年Q1-Q3的41%，但通过比较2011-2018年前三季度的ROE水平，发现2019以来的ROE仍处于历史均位。自2014年以来，基础化工行业的资产负债率呈下滑趋势，2019年的资产负债率为50.17%，同比下滑1.3%。
2019Q3行业营收实现小幅增长，盈利能力持续下滑。单季度来看，2019Q3中信基础化工行业实现整体营业总收入为3753.18亿元，同比增长3.13%；实现净利润为203.70亿元，同比下降31.06%，盈利能力持续下滑。其中，二级板块中的合成纤维及树脂、化学原料和化学制品的营收分别实现了9.22%、6.06%和4.94%的正增长，相比之下，农用化工营收呈下滑趋势，为-5.71%。从净利润来看，2019Q3四个二级板块均呈现下滑态势，分别为农用化工（-75.83%）、合成纤维及树脂（-3.24%）、化学原料（-28.12%）、化学制品（-18.53%）。
投资策略：2019年Q1-Q3期间，基础化工行业整体营收同比2018年同期小幅增长，但盈利能力同比下滑明显，二级子板块仅合成纤维及树脂实现净利润正增长。行业景气度持续下行，农化市场整体萎靡，原药价格持续下跌。三级板块中涤纶、民爆用品表现突出。短期来看，一是行业周期淡季到来，行业库存不高但未来有新增产能投放，但产品价格已在低位，市场预期部分产品价格将触底反弹。建议关注产品价格触底反弹并且有新产能投放预期的农药龙头；二是建议关注涉及5G通信、半导体、新能源、柔性显示材料等行业的具有进口替代产品的细分龙头，逻辑是5G、新能源行业正处于快速发展阶段，对上游材料的需求高速增长；三是随着环保安全监管力度趋紧，利于部分行业的结构性调整，提高行业集中度，建议关注具有产业链一体化优势的龙头公司。
风险因素：
下游发展应用不及预期、行业竞争加剧、全球经济增速放缓。
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