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招銀國際:予弘陽地產(1996.HK)“買入”評級 目標價3.37港元
格隆匯 11-15 10:16
招銀國際證券研報稱, 首次覆蓋 弘陽地產( 1996.HK ) ,並給予“買入”評級。預測公司截至 2020 年底的每股 資產淨值為 5.61 港元,並將目標價定為 3.37 港元,相對每股資產淨值折讓 40%。 強勁的合約銷售、旗下名牌購物中心及強大的管理團隊將成為公司未來的增長催 化劑。

一、深耕長三角。弘陽於 1999 年在南京成立,專注於房地產開發和商用物業業 務營運。目前公司已進駐 39 個內地城市的房地產市場。截至 2019 6 月, 公司已覆蓋江蘇省主要城市,位於江蘇省的項目已佔公司總土儲 67%
二、合約銷售增長超過 40%。今年首 10 個月,公司合約銷售金額及面積分別大 幅上升 42.8% 495 億元(人民幣,下同)及 44.6% 373 萬平。截至 2019 10 月底,按照弘陽 2019 600 億元的銷售目標計算,公司已實現 83% 達成率,相信弘陽能夠完成其全年銷售目標。根據新收購的土地,我們 預計 2020 年公司銷售目標為 800 億元。
三、總土儲 1,569 萬平。2019 上半年,弘陽在國內 20 個城市收購了共 35 幅土 地(其中 11 個為新進入市場),計劃建築面積 407 萬平。截至 2019 6 月,弘陽已投資 134 個房地產項目。公司總土儲達 1,569 萬平,應占土儲 816 萬平。平均土地成本估計每平 5,005 元。
四、推廣「弘陽廣場」品牌。弘陽擁有和經營用於長期投資的商用物業。其主要 投資物業包括南京弘陽廣場和常州弘陽廣場。除擁有自營商用物業外,公司 還採用輕資產運營模式。未來將有 12 座弘陽廣場開業,其中五座將於 2019 下半年開業,另外四座將於 2020 年開業。
五、預測 2018-21 年間,核心利潤將以 28.5%複合年增長率增加。淨負債比率處 於合理水平,我們預測 2019 年底末的淨負債比率為 68% 。我們預計公司收 入將從 2018 年的 92 億元以 41.3% 的複合年增長率增加至 2021 年的 261 元,而毛利率則將從 2018 年的 31.2% 下降至 2021 年的 25.5% 。因此,我 們預測 2019-21 年的核心利潤分別為 14.3 億元 19.7 億元及 25.8 億元。 
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