華虹半導體(01347.HK)：評級及目標價雙降，靜待結構性問題改善，給予“增持”評級，目標價16港元
機構：國金證券
評級：增持
目標價：16港元
投資邏輯：
自由現金流不足：當華虹公佈其合併報表的資本開支大幅竄升到4.6億美元（佔192%的三季度營收），而合計其淨利潤及折舊攤銷的現金流入連1億美元都不到，季度末現金不到5億美元，我們估計華虹未來將採取增資（攤薄股數增加可期），發公司債（增加利息支出），向銀行貸款（增加利息支出）。這都會影響21位彭博分析師對華虹未來幾年獲利的評估。
折舊費用攀升影響毛利率可期：我們擔心的是等到華虹12”全能量產後，即使有政府的補貼，季度折舊攤銷費用將超過5,000萬美元，佔營業成本比會從過去的19%，拉到未來的25-30%；這樣20-25%的毛利率及10%以下的營業利潤率可能在2020-2021年成為常態，低於市場預期的28-29%毛利率。
8”需求變數扔大：日本硅片大廠Sumco之前預期8”大硅片需求還是不振，需求復甦緩慢，目前仍低於2018、2017年同期水準。雖然Sumco預期12”logic還有感測器需求將回到正常水準，但12”硅片客户庫存及庫存天數持續攀升，Sumco認為大硅片現貨價及合約價將持續下跌。
投資建議
調降獲利/評級/目標價：雖然我們認為華虹未來幾個季度營收環比及同比復甦將逐步放量，15x以下P/E，1x以下P/B估值都還算合理，但仍然看到幾項影響公司未來股價結構性的問題，所以我們決定調降華虹2019每股收益近5%到US$0.14,下調2020EEPS近17%到US$0.15,及下調2021EEPS近10%到US$0.19，並調降評級從買入到增持，調降目標價從HK$21到HK$16。
風險提示
12”晶圓代工擴產計劃所拉高的折舊費用可能破壞毛利結構，增長動力的MCU和電力功率半導體下游景氣度的下滑，高毛利分立器件晶圓代工的競爭加速，而與市場預估值的差異是短期所面臨的風險。
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