東方電氣(01072.HK):復甦及轉型將推動增長,維持“買入“評級,目標價6.35港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:6.35港元
2019年前9個月淨利潤同比升13.5%至人民幣10.35億元。2019年第3季度的收入和淨利分別同比升26.9%和跌19.0%。2019年前9個月的業績差於預期,主要受累於不如預期的2019年第3季度的業績。2019年前9個月的毛利率同比上升了4.0個百分點至24.4%,而淨利潤率則同比上升0.4個百分點至4.5%。2019年前9個月的新訂單同比增長14.4%至261.2億元人民幣,而出口訂單佔到了新訂單總額的11.1%。
全國於2019年前9個月的新增發電裝機容量同比下降20.4%至64.6吉瓦。其中,火電、水電、核電、風電和太陽能的新裝機容量分別為28.5吉瓦、2.8吉瓦、4.1吉瓦、13.1吉瓦和16.1吉瓦,分別相當於+19.7%/-58.0%/+18.2%/+3.7%/-53.3%的同比增長。可再生能源發電裝機佔到了2019年前9個月國內新增發電裝機容量的56%。
我們維持投資評級為“買入”,但下調目標價至6.35港元。我們預計公司於2019-2021年的收入將分別同比上升0.4%/3.2%/4.6%。此外,公司的綜合毛利率將逐年回升,並預計將於2019-2021年分別達到26.4%/27.4%/28.1%。我們經調整後的2019-2021年的每股盈利預測分別為人民幣0.434元、人民幣0.580元和人民幣0.653元。我們的新目標價相當於13.2/10.0/8.8倍的2019-2021年市盈率或0.6/0.6/0.5倍的2019-2021年市淨率。

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