銀河娛樂(00027.HK)：19年第三季業績優於預期，給予“買入”評級，目標價67.7 港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：67.7 港元
19年第三季經調整EBITDA優於預期
銀河娛樂19年第三季淨收入為127億港元，同比下跌2.2%；經調整EBITDA為41.1億港元，同比增長6.0%，優於預期，主要由於1)第三季整體貴賓廳及中場分別錄得3.89%及24.1%的偏高淨贏率(去年同期為3.25%及22.1%)；2)穩健的中場增長；3)非博彩收入的推動(第三季集團非博彩收入達到14.1億港元，創出歷史新高)。淨贏率正常化後，集團經調整EBITDA為39.3億港元，同比下跌6.7%。第三季集團經調整EBITDA利潤率為32.4%(同比增加2.4個百分點)，主要來自較高利潤率的中場及非博彩業務推動。
穩健的中場業務支撐利潤增長
集團的龐大中場業務依舊穩健，第三季中場博彩毛收入同比增長10.8%。旗艦物業“澳門銀河”繼續支撐集團增長，第三季中場博彩毛收入達到51.3億港元，同比增長15.7%，創歷史第二季度新高。“澳門銀河”的經調整EBITDA同比增長7.3%，而經調整EBITDA利潤率達到34.1%(同比增加2.4個百分點，環比增加0.1個百分點)，創出歷史新高。管理層在11月7日的業績電話會指出集團的來自廣東省以來地區的中場客户數目持續增加，而中級及核心中場增長足以抵銷高端中場放緩的影響，貴賓廳繼續受到宏觀環境及地區競爭影響。
潛在增長催化劑陸續落實
集團繼續進行澳門銀河及星際酒店15億港元的提升工程計劃，並預計在2020年中前完成，而太陽城集團兩個新的貴賓廳已翻新完工，並已在10月開始營運，我們相信有助提振四季度的貴賓廳表現。另一方面，澳門銀河三期的細則陸續公佈，集團在今年8月已率先介紹了銀河國際會議展覽中心及銀河綜藝館，而在11月5日亦公佈了凱悦酒店集團旗下安達仕酒店（Andaz）將進駐銀河綜合度假城，預計在2021年初與銀河國際會議展覽中心及銀河綜藝館一同開業。
調整盈利預測，升目標價至67.8港元，上調至“買入”評級
我們分別調整19-21年經調整EBIDTA預測+0.4%、+0.8%及+0.9%%至165.6億港元、177.3億港元及210.9億港元。我們預測19-21年集團經調整EBITDA分別同比-1.8%、+7.1%及+18.9%。我們認為目前估值未有反映銀河三/四期的價值，隨着細則陸續公佈，股價將開始反映未來項目的貢獻。我們把目標價從60.6港元上調至67.7港元，主要是按澳門銀河三/四期2022年EBITDA給予12.5倍的估值+11.03%的WACC，計算出每股現值為9.2港元。我們把評級從“增持”上調至“買入”，現價對應目標價有22.5%的潛在升幅。
風險提示：(一)簽證政策收緊；(二)賭場續牌風險；(三)經濟放緩打擊博彩需求
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