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波司登(03998.HK):雙十一圓滿收官,高端化、年輕化成為亮點,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 11-13 16:13

機構:東吳證券

評級:買入

投資要點

雙十一收官,波司登全品牌交出圓滿答卷:從當日銷售數據來看,波司登主品牌天貓旗艦店銷售同比增長58%至6.5億元,全網銷售增長43%,線上線下全渠道銷售增長37%至10億元;綜合波司登、雪中飛、冰潔三品牌來看,天貓旗艦店銷售增長57.5%,全網增長49%。

天氣較去年同期偏暖背景下仍維持高增。本次雙十一前天氣明顯偏暖。以北京為例。2018年及2019年11月1日至11月12日平均最高温度分別為13.5/15.5℃,在此背景下公司仍展現高增,體現品牌、產品持續升級下消費潛力持續激發。

客羣高端化、年輕化是本次雙十一銷售的亮點。考察本次雙十一銷售結構:

①高端化趨勢明顯:1)城市層級上,一二線城市購買人數增長50%+;2)產品單價上,高客單商品(1800元以上)銷售額同比提升147%,佔比同比提升56%,3)設計師系列銷售佔比提升:設計師系列銷售同比增幅1139%,佔比同比提升684%;

②客户年輕化:18-34歲消費人數增長51%;

③會員人數增長明顯,O2O佔比提升:會員人數增長50萬,同增119%,體現客户羣體有效擴大;線上線下互動強化,O2O發貨訂單佔比同比提升77%。

新的一年公司在產品性能及品牌內涵打造上繼續精益求精。(1)公司新產品從羽絨、面料、工藝上表現出的技術積澱和底藴明顯超出國內其他競爭對手,產品在性能上追求極致。(2)公司1998年贊助中國登山隊登山珠峯、2019年5月用登峯系列再次贊助中國登山隊登山珠峯,與夏伯渝先生的合作更是體現出不一樣的攀登精神和中國精神。

在產品極致性能和品牌內涵打造的基礎上,公司在今年推出最高價11800的登峯系列,充分體現出公司對波司登品牌的自信。作為民族品牌的代表之一,公司表現出優秀的產品和品牌的打造能力。

盈利預測及投資建議:公司進入銷售季節後營銷節奏有條不紊,9月米蘭時裝週設計師系列發佈會邀請名模KendalJenner走秀、NicoleKidman觀秀,同時聘請“帶貨女王”楊冪成為設計師系列代言人、10月登峯造極高端系列發佈會反響強烈、並連續與包括TomHiddleston、ScarlettJohansson等大牌歐美演員合作實現產品露出,營銷資源較去年同期更上層樓。本次雙十一銷售結構也體現出產品及品牌升級帶來的銷售高端化以及客羣年輕化和成果。繼續看好公司前景,預計FY20/FY21/FY22淨利潤為13.0億/16.9億/20.7億,同比增長32.5%/29.7%/22.4%,對應PE28.8X/22.2X/18.1X,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:經濟環境、天氣變化使終端零售需求不及預期。

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