中芯國際(00981.HK)：國產化替代促進產能利用率提升，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
物聯網消費電子業務帶動Q3營收增長3.2%超指引
2019年Q3營收8.16億元，環比增3.2%，高於指引2%。不含已經出售的阿扎為8寸廠，環比增6.1%。其中，物聯網消費電子業務增長16%。2019Q3毛利1.69億元，環比增加12.3%，同比減少2.7%。2019年Q4業績指引：收入環比增加2%~4%，不含Q3已經出售的阿扎為工廠收入環比增加4%~6%,毛利率23%~24%之間。
國產化替代促進產能利用率提升至97%，毛利率提升至21%
公司營收增長的同時，Q3毛利率上升至20.8%，收入和毛利率雙升，説明公司業務強勁，不是通過降價來提升收入。Q3產能利用率提升至97%，遠高於Q2的91.1%。符合我們2019年11月8日發佈報告的預判：因為半導體代工國產化趨勢越來越明顯，中芯國際作為大陸半導體代工龍頭將明顯受益。
中國大陸&香港收入佔比提升60.5%
2019Q3中芯國際的來自中國大陸和香港的收入佔比提升至60.5%，符合我們之前的預判，公司的產能和工藝技術能夠承接上游芯片設計公司的代工訂單轉移。公司第四季度來自中國大陸和香港的收入佔比將繼續提升。
受益於國產化替代，維持“買入”評級
大陸半導體產業要崛起，從設計到代工、封測都要自主化，大陸芯片設計公司正在將代工轉向國內，公司作為大陸代工廠龍頭明顯受益。預計2019~2021年收入分別為31.32億美元/36.04億美元/40.59億美元，增速分別為-6.8%/15.1%/12.6%，2019~2021年利潤分別為1.39億美元/1.84億美元/2.26億美元，增速3.9%/32.8%/22.5%。
公司作為半導體代工的技術跟隨着，技術節點突破是關鍵，應該先看公司的技術，再看收入，最後才是利潤。短期受益於Norflash代工需求，中長期看好國產化替代大背景下的大陸代工廠崛起。綜合考慮，公司合理PB估值範圍為1.6~1.8倍，公司合理估值14.1~15.8港元，維持業績預測和“買入”評級。
風險提示
14nm工藝進展不及預期，全球產能鬆動，影響公司毛利率。
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