中金:維持新奧能源(2688.HK)“跑贏行業”評級 目標價88港元
中金公司發佈報告稱,新奧能源(02688.HK)2019年三季度售氣量維持上半年勢頭,同比增長15%。該行認為,公司2019財年售氣量增速可以達到此前指引的15-%20%區間。考慮到公司近期股價上漲可能已基本反映了潛在的利好因素,該行表示,維持盈利預期與目標價88港元(對應17.5倍2019財年市盈率)不變,維持“跑贏行業”評級。
該行稱,公司三季度毛差回升,得益於居民和非居民進一步向下游順價達成。公司正與上游公司簽訂採暖季供氣合同,雙方同意上游公司採用均衡量在門站基準價格上浮20%,調峯量上浮45%的天然氣價格上調方案。2019 年下半年公司收回部分煤改氣補貼和舟山碼頭的LNG進口長約也會有助於毛差的恢復。
該行又稱,公司綜合能源業務仍為長期戰略,但短期不會激進。國家管網公司仍為短期風險。儘管長期來看,未來國家管網公司成立對行業下游有望帶來利好,但新奧能源管理層指出,為彌補上游油氣公司的LNG進口虧損,不排除存在本已處於高位的天然氣門站價格短期進一步上漲的風險的可能。

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