丘鈦科技(01478.HK)：首10月出貨量符預期，將受惠智能手機行業回暖，重申“增持”評級，目標價12.60港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：增持
目標價：12.60港元
攝像頭模組首10月出貨量增速超全年指引，產品結構進一步改善
19年10月當月攝像頭模組出貨量為3,926.3萬件，同比增長45.3%，略低於全年50%增速指引，環比增長3.1%。其中，1000萬像素及以上攝像頭模組出貨量為2,423.6萬件，同比增長84.8%，環比下降1.6%；800萬像素及以下攝像頭模組出貨量為1,502.7萬件，同比增長8.1%，環比增長11.5%。攝像頭模組出貨量同比增長主要由於公司攝像頭模組市場佔有率提升。19年1-10月攝像頭模組出貨量為3.3億件，同比增長57.8%，仍高於全年50%增速指引。其中，1000萬像素及以上攝像頭模組佔比達52.3%，較1-9月進一步提升，高於全年佔比50%的指引。
指紋識別模組首10月出貨量同比跌幅繼續縮窄，屏下指紋識別模組佔比仍超全年指引
19年10月當月指紋識別模組出貨量為984.6萬件，同比減少8.5%，環比減少29.5%。其中，屏下指紋識別模組出貨量為418.9萬件，同比增長101.3%，環比下降38.6%；非屏下指紋識別模組出貨量為565.7萬件，同比減少34.8%，環比減少20.9%。10月指紋識別模組出貨量同比減少主要由於公司主動減少傳統電容式指紋識別模組項目，但放棄部分低毛利率的項目有利於改善指紋識別模組產品結構及提升盈利能力，環比減少主要受客户項目週期影響。19年1-10月指紋識別模組出貨量為8,018.9萬件，同比下降10.7%，較1-9月同比跌幅縮窄。其中，屏下指紋識別模組佔比達49.7%，高於全年佔比40%的指引。
5G提前商用將加速智能手機出貨量回暖，公司將受惠於智能手機放量
5G於近日提前商用，有望加速智能手機行業出貨量回暖，預期明年全球智能手機出貨量可錄得低單位數增長。隨着5G網絡覆蓋增強、服務質量提升，消費者轉5G套餐的意願將會增強，並且我們認為目前5G套餐價格給未來降費提供了空間，三大運營商可適時通過降費等方式加速提升5G用户滲透率，促使用户更換5G手機，利好手機產業鏈企業。
上調目標價至12.60港元，重申增持評級
考慮公司10月出貨量表現及5G於近期提前商用有望加速智能手機行業出貨量回暖，我們調整對公司的盈利預測，2019年至2021年的每股盈利分別為0.38/0.45/0.58元人民幣，相應上調目標價至12.60港元，對應25.0倍的20年預測市盈率，目標價相對現價有14.5%的潛在升幅，重申“增持”評級。
風險提示：（一）產品結構改善不及預期；（二）競爭激烈導致毛利率不及預期；（三）華為事件負面影響擴大；（四）人民幣匯率波動
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