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麥格理:料內地新版《國家醫保藥物目錄》下週公佈 綠葉製藥(2186.HK)可望受惠
格隆匯 11-12 12:52
麥格理髮表報告表示,估計內地新版《國家醫保藥物目錄》將於下週公佈結果,結果相信直接影響部份藥企,因旗下藥品可望獲當局納入。該行估計內地新版《國家醫保目錄》對綠葉製藥(2186.HK) 有直接影響,因估計旗下主要藥品“ Lipusu ”會獲得納入,同時料其競爭對手產品不會被納入,相信消息一旦落實,對綠葉製藥屬利好的消息,予其“ 跑贏大市 ”評級。該行亦估計內地新版《國家醫保藥物目錄》會納入信立泰(002294.SZ)旗下藥品“ 信利坦 ”(Xinlitan),亦屬利好消息。
麥格理亦預測,抗癌藥物PD-1將是主要焦點,假設君實生物(1877.HK) 及信達生物(1801.HK) 旗下藥品cHL及melanoma獲納入醫保目錄,相信亦會屬利好消息,該行予兩股均為“ 跑贏大市 ”評級。不過,若跨國藥企競爭對手Opdivo及Keytruda產品如(NSCLC)獲得納入,或出現其他極端情況,則可能變成壞消息。該行按2016年5月(第一輪)、2017年7月(第二輪)及2018年10月(第三輪)平均藥價降幅各為50%、40%及56%,估計今輪藥價降幅將會處於相約水平,而非“ 4+7 ”時般的劇烈降幅,因料今次可獲納入目錄的不少藥品屬創新藥物。而回顧2017年時平衡藥品降價及銷量上升因素,當時部份重量級藥物(Blockbuster Drug)雖降價50%,但銷量大升2倍,可完全抵銷毛利率急降的影響。

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