植耀辉: 港股後市变数仍多 浅谈乳业股前景
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，港股昨日(11日)又再度急跌，中美贸易谈判再起波澜，原先上周投资者还在热炒首阶段达成贸易协议，但转眼美国总统特朗普便马上「否决」撤消关税的说法，加上本地情况又再转趋恶化。一时之间，乐观情绪又马上变得悲观。事实上，正如笔者一直强调，若只是买多数以百亿美元农产品便可令解决贸易战，相信一早便已成事矣!故亦一直未敢对後市有太多憧憬。当然，现时後市变数相当多，中美贸易只是其中之一，本地局势恶化，以至腾讯(00700.HK)业绩仍然深受关注；此外，联储局主席鲍威尔亦会出席听证会，相信大市仍会相当反覆，并继续出现大幅波动的情况，而较早前之27,800至28,000点仍会是重大阻力。
早前因中国飞鹤(06186.HK)招股关系，笔者搜集了不少内地乳业发展之相关资料，亦可趁此跟各位分享对相关板块之看法。内地乳制品市场自2008年三鹿奶粉三聚氰胺事件後行业开始出现重大改变，消费者争相选购国际品牌，本土企业面对如此情况，部分如伊利及蒙牛(02319.HK)等乳业综合大型企业利用自身优势，进行行业整合之余，亦积极寻找国际牧场奶源资源，以及将生产及技术变得国际化。
其後内地推出一系列政策，逐渐令消费者恢复信心。而行业发展亦出现两极化，大型企业如伊利及蒙牛优势明显，并通过向外并购，将品牌推向国际化。
最後亦可谈谈飞鹤。根据招股书介绍，飞鹤为内地最大婴幼儿配方奶粉公司，於内地婴幼儿配方奶粉集团中排名第一(市场份额15.6%)，某程度上拥有龙头概念。当然，在政策支持加强品牌集中度(国产奶粉自控目标达到60%以上)的同时，该公司主打高端市场，同时拥有较广泛之线下销售渠道，以及过去三年业绩维持高增长下，前景料仍可审慎看好。不过，跟大部分增长强劲的内地企业一样，飞鹤用於广告销售之开支亦持续增加，由2016至2018年占营收比例大致维持於36%水平；而行业竞争一向激烈，但飞鹤研发比例过去三年亦只得1%，未来如何保持优势，值得大家关注。
此外，原奶价格今年开始持续攀升，早前蒙牛股价下跌，便是市场担心原奶价格上升会影响毛利水平。因此飞鹤未来股价去向，笔者倾向较为审慎。
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