近期投資策略看點：火電行業有望觸底反彈
格隆匯 11-12 09:01
機構：國泰君安
摘要
火電行業：煤價環比下跌，發電量改善，火電板塊Q3業績復甦加速。利潤加速增長。2019年Q3火電板塊收入同比+12.1%（Q2+4.5%），Q1、Q2、Q3收入分別+15.7%、+4.5%、+12.1%。歸母淨利潤和扣非淨利潤快速增長，同比分別+93.6%和+102.8%。2019Q1、Q2、Q3扣費淨利潤分別為+72.5%、+41.2%、+102.8%。今年前三季度累計收入和扣非淨利潤同比+11%和+68%，好於整體電力行業的+12%和+44%。
發電量增速觸底反彈。2019Q1、Q2、Q3全國火電發電量同比增速分別為2.0%、-1.7%、1.4%，9月電量增速出現反彈，達到6%，創2018年9月以來最高增速。向前看，由於去年四季度火電發電量基數較低，其次是國內多地水量偏枯，水電發電量增速下滑，預計Q4火電發電量將企穩回升。
煤產量高於火電發電量，煤價持續承壓。2019Q1、Q2、Q3不含税電煤價格指數同比增速分別為-7.6%、-2.3%、-4.7%，Q3環比增速為-1.5%。1-9月火電發電量同比增速0.5%，而原煤產量增速4.5%，煤炭供應相對高於發電量增速，導致今年煤價承壓，發電燃料成本下降。
行業估值處於歷史低位。當前火電行業19/20年預計市淨率為0.5倍和0.5倍，動態市盈率分別為8.5倍和7.0倍，均處於近5年估值底部。19/20年行業加權平均股息率分別為6.5%和7.6%。
建議關注：華能國際（00902.HK）、華潤電力（00836.HK）。
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