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中國船舶租賃(03877.HK):規模擴張、航運業回暖與利率下行的三重刺激,給予“推薦”評級,目標價1.64元
格隆匯 11-12 08:49

機構:國聯證券

評級:推薦

目標價:1.64元

投資要點:

中船租賃是船廠系租賃業的龍頭企業

中船租賃是中船集團旗下唯一的租賃公司,以提供各種船舶租賃解決方案為主營業務。按收入規模計算,公司目前在全球船舶租賃行業市場份額為3.9%,排名第四,並在全球非銀行系船舶租賃行業中排名第一。

業務規模保持高速增長

2016年以來,中船租賃的營收及淨利潤水平保持了較快的增長勢頭:2018總收入為21.05億元,兩年複合增長率達42.88%;淨利潤為7.07億港元,兩年複合增速達27.86%;ROE水平始終保持在10%以上。考慮到公司目前在手訂單充裕,公司仍將在未來3年保持20%左右的擴張速度

航運業回暖將提升公司船隊的資產回報率

中船租賃現有船隊與在手訂單涵蓋LNG/LPG、幹散貨、集裝箱等多個船型,比例較為平均,價值合計為57.93億美元。19-21年,航運業回暖將促使上述船型的資產價格得到可觀的提升比例,我們預計公司的生息資產回報率將因此提升至10%左右。

多渠道融資與寬鬆貨幣政策減輕公司負債成本

融資成本及銀行費用是公司的最大成本,佔其18年總成本的71.54%;銀行借款是公司最大的負債項目,佔18年總負債的95.85%。公司上市後,融資手段更加多元,隨着18年公司短期債務的大量到期及利率水平下行,公司負債成本壓力將減輕,預計未來三年公司計息負債成本將降至3.5%左右。

盈利預測與估值

預計公司2019-21年淨利潤水平分別為10.66億、15.66億和21.57億港元,參考四家H股上市租賃公司的平均市盈率水平,給予19-20年平均收益7.76XPE,對應目標市值為100.86億港元,股價為HK$1.64。

風險提示

利率、匯率風險、中美貿易戰升級導致全球經濟超預期放緩

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