爱奇艺( IQ )：行业监管趋稳下头部内容将进入下一轮投资周期，中期公司会员业务或将量价齐升，维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
公司发布19Q3季报：公司19Q3收入同增7%达到74.0亿元，归母净利润亏损同比扩大至-36.9亿元，上个季度19Q2的亏损额约为-23.3亿元，净利率同比扩大至-49.9%（上一季度19Q2约为-33%）。公司订阅会员环比增长556万至1.06亿人，其中99.2%为付费会员。
1）19Q4指引增速约为-2%~4%，会员收入占比达到50%
19Q4指引收入增速达到-2%~4%至68.6~72.8亿元，我们认为随着监管周期回暖趋于平稳，公司储备的较多古装大剧以及综艺内容有望迎来释放期，19Q4起公司业绩稳定向好。19Q3归母净利润亏损同比扩大至-36.9亿元。净利率约为-50%。主要系内容成本占收入比重上升至83.8%左右。
2）订阅会员19Q2增量556万，未来或将进入提价周期
公司19Q3会员收入同比增长30%至37.2亿元，订阅会员数净增长约556万达到1.06亿人，以移动MAU为口径计算的渗透率环比上升至18.7%。未来3年内，视频人口中付费率的提升仍是公司的主逻辑，而在价格上，公司未来一方面会降低打折促销力度来提升ARPU值，另外一方面则也在积极考虑提升名义价格。除此之外我们认为基于VIP体系的差异化定价也将是未来可能提升ARPU值的重要途径之一。
投资建议：考虑到广告收入下降幅度较大，我们调整公司的2019-2020年预测营业收入至286亿和341亿元，同比增长14%和19%。归母净利润分别为-115亿元和-80亿元。中长期来看，公司在长视频网站的竞争中已经取得了一定的优势，特别是在头部内容和会员上有望保持第一名的位置，逐步向产业链上游拓展，培养自身的制作力量。参考可比公司平均估值水平，给予公司对应2019年收入约4X左右的PS估值，对应合理价值为22.49美元/ADS，仍维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：广告业务压力、成本过高风险、融资成本较高风险、监管风险。
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