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吉利汽車(00175.HK)點評報告:10月銷量回升轉正,預計Q4將繼續回暖,給予“強烈推薦“評級,目標價17.7港元
格隆匯 11-11 16:12

機構:廣證恆生

評級:強烈推薦

目標價:17.7港元

事件:

2019年11月6日公司公佈10月銷量公告,2019年10月總銷量同比上升1%及環比上升14%至13.02萬輛;19年1-10月累計銷量為108.83萬輛,同比下降14.1%。

點評:

10月銷量轉正及好於行業,預計Q4將繼續回暖及完成年度銷量目標公司批發量在連續6個月下跌後在10月份轉正,同比上升1%,而扣除海外銷量後10月國內銷量為12.72萬輛,同比持平,高於行業10月乘用車批發增速的-6%。從車型看,10月同比增長明顯的分別是博越、繽瑞和帝豪GS,增速分別是5.7%、2.4%和0.7%,銷量達到2.14/0.78/1.21萬輛,主要是受益於博越PRO和帝豪GSe近期上市所帶動。從下降幅度看,帝豪GL/遠景/遠景SUV分別同比下降51.9%/34%/24.5%至0.62/0.74/0.76萬輛,降幅仍較顯著,但新帝豪降幅相對較少,同比降9.7%至1.84萬台。庫存方面,Q3較Q2有所增加,但主要是Q2處於去庫存狀態,Q3按月統計仍處於合理水平及低於去年同期,預計庫存增加主要為Q4備貨。目前公司已完成全年136萬輛銷量目標的80%,預計Q4銷量在行業逐步回暖及低基數下會有所恢復,全年將可達到銷量目標。

新車款環比上升但銷量佔比仍有待提高,領克降幅已有所收窄

10月所有車型均實現環比增長,增量貢獻明顯的主要是遠景SUV、新帝豪和繽瑞,銷量分別環比增加3250/2468/1873輛,對應增速分別是74.4%/15.5%/31.8%,而繽越和帝豪GS也環比上升13%和12.8%。新車款方面,嘉際環比增16.6%至3104輛,星越環比增2%至3335輛,幾何A環比增加32.2%至1565輛,新車型銷量爬坡仍在持續,隨着公司持續推出新車款,包括年底上市新SUV車款icon,預計未來對銷量貢獻將進一步提高。領克方面,銷量同比降7.7%和環比增3.1%至1.4萬輛,同比降幅已較7-9月的-30%/-20%/-8%有所改善,主要是領克03在10月環比增8%至7028台推動所致。

海外銷量維持高增長,新能源持續佈局將推動未來銷量貢獻提升

10月海外出口2,986輛,同比增124%;1-10月總出口量同比增196%至5.15萬輛,整體出口仍在快速增長。新能源方面,10月銷量明顯回暖,分別同比和環比增27%和17.4%至1.03萬輛,其中,銷量佔比最高的分別是帝豪GLPHEV、嘉際MHEV和幾何A,共佔約66%。隨着公司與沃爾沃計劃合併發動機業務,未來車型有望搭載沃爾沃的動力總成及混合動力系統,加上預計明年全面推進純電動PMA架構,整體新能源車型競爭力將隨着技術提升而提高,未來將有助進一步推動銷量貢獻。

盈利預測與估值

我們預計公司Q4銷量將進一步回暖,預計公司2019-2021年EPS分別為1.14、1.31、1.53港元,分別較上期上調9.6%/9.2%/2%,對應P/E分別為13.4、11.7、10倍。按照我們對20年預測,給予公司13.5倍P/E估值,上調目標價至17.7港元,評級上調至“強烈推薦”。

風險提示:銷量不及預期;同行競爭導致的價格壓力;新車款上市數量低於預期;行業和經濟下行壓力增加等。

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