石藥集團(01093.HK)：亮劍2019，揚帆啟航未來十年，維持"審慎增持"評級，目標價 27.2 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價 ：27.2 港元
投資要點
低調務實，碩果累累。公司已成立全球四大研發中心，構建10個研發技術平台，2個國家重點實驗室；研發團隊已有1800多人，其中有110多位博士及海外高端研發人才，預計未來3年將擴至3000人；公司儲備300多個在研項目，其中100多個為創新藥項目。在研管線覆蓋腫瘤、精神等多領域，重點領域均有產品報產待批，在近3年能為各個重點領域添加多個亮點，形成協同效應。良好的梯隊和層次為公司10年內的穩定業績增長奠定基礎。
未來3年將有多個重磅產品將陸續上市。公司新型製劑平台已積累多年技術經驗和豐富產品，重磅藥物兩性黴素B膽固醇硫酸脂複合物即將在2020年有條件上市，其大幅降低了傳統兩性黴素B製劑毒副作用，有望成為一線抗侵襲性麴黴菌產品。另外20-21年SCT-400、米託蒽醌、Duvelisib等血液瘤產品陸續上市，與現有的多美素、諾利寧、硼替佐米、達沙替尼等產品形成集羣。現有網絡和產品口碑有利於新產品快速推廣和上量，形成規模效應。
仿創結合，長期可期。在眾多管線補充下，我們對未來5-10年的收入及分板塊規模做了大致預測。但該預測有一定的侷限性：1）未考慮集採對仿製藥的影響，考慮到無論一致性評價的數量和進度，還是新仿製藥/美國ANDA的數量進度，還是原料藥、生產技術和產能，我們認為集採對公司的影響大概率反而是正面的；2）對中後期品種假設上市成功率為100%，但不考慮較早期產品。3）其他政策因素。在當前框架下，考慮上述管線，我們判斷未來5年收入至少有21.3%的複合增長，10年增速至少有17.5%的複合增長。充足的管線為長線發展奠定基礎。
盈利預測和估值。考慮到近期氯吡格雷集採中標以及若干新產品推進順利，我們提升20-21年的收入預測至330.8億、411.0億港幣，提升幅度分別為1.7%、2.5%，同時提升研發費用預測，維持原歸母淨利潤預測不變。提升目標價至27.2港元，對應19年預測市盈率為37.1倍，對應20年預測市盈率為30.0倍，相比現價有29.8%的空間，維持"審慎增持"評級。
風險提示：醫保控費壓力加大，原料藥價格下行。
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