You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
石藥集團(1093.HK):研發平台價值凸顯,管線豐富穩步推進,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 11-08 13:46

機構:國金證券

評級:買入

事件 

 上週,公司於上海舉辦創新藥論壇暨投資者交流活動,較為全面披露了公 司創新藥管線,並提供平台給公司科研團隊與投資者充分交流。 

點評  公司研發投入提升,在研管線不斷補充,研發平台價值凸顯:公司 2019 年 研發投入力度加大,整體研發平台價值凸顯,品種逐步進入收穫期。實體 瘤創新管線已確定後選品種 26 項,小分子 12 項,大分子 14 項,11 項進入 臨牀,15 項臨牀前。其次,公司實體瘤劑型改進品種在研 10 項。另,血液 瘤創新藥管線已確定分子約 18 項,創新藥 8 項,劑型改進 5 項。未來三年 預計上市新藥品種 12 個,其中大分子創新藥 5 個,小分子創新 3 個,劑型 改進品種 4 個;其中峯值 30 億以上品種預計 3-5 個,峯值 10-30 億品種預 計 7-9 個,明年有望獲批兩性黴素 B 脂質體、米託蒽醌脂質體等大品種。 未來三年預計 17 個小分子及 14 個大分子申報 IND,研發管線逐步兑現。 

 核心業績驅動因素恩必普持續放量下沉渠道,抗腫瘤藥銷售高增長:核心 品種恩必普是公司業績第一大驅動因素,目前基層滲透較低,預計未來渠 道下沉、院外推廣、以及 OTC 渠道嘗試等方案將是該品種主要發展方向。 公司第二大驅動因素為抗腫瘤藥,該領域核心品種為多美素、津優力、以 及 2018 年 2 月獲批上市的白蛋白紫杉醇,抗腫瘤領域 2019 年 H1 同比增速 約 194.2%,其中白蛋白紫杉醇預計快速放量,2019 年 Q3-Q4 將繼續放量增 長,今年有望銷售額超 15 億元。 

 原料藥價格下降業績有所迴歸,普藥依靠品種優勢有望環比改善穩定增 長:公司整體原料藥版塊符合預期,價格有所回落,業績迴歸,未來預計 維持穩定,預計未來新諾威維持穩定,VC 價格企穩略微回升,抗生素戰略 性地位逐步下降。普藥版塊隨着銷售改革和優勢品種放量,整體增速穩 健。今年帶量採購擴面全國談判中,公司新批品種氯吡格雷進入目錄,預 計明年放量,有望銷售額達到 4-5 億元。 

估值與盈利預測 

 公司業績穩定增長,研發加大投入穩定推進。我們給予 2019-2021 三年 EPS 為 0.74/0.91/1.10 元,PE 為 28.9/23.5/19.5 倍。 

風險提示  帶量採購進度不確定;輔助用藥政策對品種的影響不確定;研發進展存在不確定; 19 年及以後業績調為人民幣結算,預測模型存在匯率不確定性。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account