東陽光藥(1558.HK)2019年3季度數據點評：三季度業績超預期，可威淡季銷售持續強勁，維持“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
◆三季度業績超預期。公司公佈季度財務數據：2019 年前三季度實現收入 44.4 億元（+157.7%，Q3 單季收入 13.7 億元），歸母淨利潤為 15.5 億元 （+127.7%，Q3 單季淨利潤 4.6 億元），若考慮可轉債影響歸母淨利潤為 13.2 億元（+93.4%）。 前三季度毛利率同比提升 1.5pp 至 85.5%，淨利率 同比降低 4.5pp 至 35.0%。公司核心產品受益銷售團隊持續擴張和基層滲透 率增加，實現強勁增長，業績增速超出市場預期。
◆“可威”強勁增長，流感淡季業績仍靚麗。核心產品可威受益於銷售團隊 持續擴張、基層滲透不斷推進，預計實現近 40 億元銷售，在 18 年 Q3 低基 數之下實現高增長，超出市場預期。截止 19H1，可威顆粒和膠囊覆蓋的基 層醫療機構達 7 萬家，覆蓋同比增加 53%，OTC 藥房覆蓋超 10 萬家。OTC 渠道和基層市場已成“可威”重要的新增長點。此外，在 19 版醫保目錄調 整中，可威報銷範圍從“僅限甲流確診病患使用”變動至“高危流感病人可 使用”，有望拓寬醫保覆蓋患者人數。考慮到目前產品競爭格局良好、流感 用藥滲透率遠未及天花板、OTC 渠道與基層市場有望齊發力，預計“可威” 銷售有望維持較快增長。
◆海外製劑資產轉國內穩步推進。公司共收購集團 33 個海外製劑資產，品 種多為重磅仿製藥及難仿品種。海外轉國內獲批後視同通過一致性評價。目 前首批已有克拉黴素片、莫西沙星片等 5 個品種獲批，其中上述 2 個品種上 半年錄得 3100 萬收入；第二批品種中恩替卡韋、奧氮平、替格瑞洛等 4~5 個品種有望於 19 年底前獲批。公司有望藉助豐富的仿藥品種儲備快速切入 國內市場，在“ANDA+帶量採購”組合政策推進中搶佔份額。
◆在研產品梯隊完善，各大疾病領域研發推進順利。公司在研產品推進順利， 有望助力公司長期發展。內分泌與代謝領域：重組人胰島素進展最快，有望 於近期開展現場檢查；重組人預混甘精胰島素、門冬胰島素預混 30 處於臨 牀 III 期階段，有望於 20~21 年獲批上市。抗病毒領域：1.1 類創新藥磷酸 依米他韋已申報上市，有望於 20 年獲批上市；與太景合作的“依米他韋+ 伏拉瑞韋”有望於 20 年申報上市。
◆維持“買入”評級。受益於基層渠道拓展和流感高發，預計可威銷量仍可 保持較快增長，結合 3 季度業績表現，上調 19-21 年 EPS 至 4.06/4.67/5.44 元（原 2.96/3.47/3.98 元），分別同比增長 93.6%/15.0%/16.3%，目前股價 對應 19-21 年 PE 為 9/8/7 倍，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：可威銷量週期性波動，研發進度不及預期，競爭格局加劇
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