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國泰君安(香港):維持洛陽鉬業(3993.HK)“中性”評級 目標價2.9港元
格隆匯 11-07 14:25

國泰君安(香港)報告稱,洛陽鉬業(3993.HK)公司2019年3季度業績差於市場一致預期和我們的估計。公司前三季度收入同比增加66.35%至人民幣334.1億元,但股東淨利同比暴跌69.93%至人民幣12.4億元。淨利潤的顯著下跌主要歸因於更低的金屬價格。

下調鈷價假設,但維持其它金屬價格假設不變。我們預計鉬價和鎢價在2019年和2020年基本持平或小幅上升。我們預計2019年年度銅均價在6,100美元/噸左右,2020年年度銅均價將在6,000-6,500美元/噸之間。我們將2019年年度鈷均價假設下調至32,300美元/噸,我們預計鈷價在2020年温和上漲,年度鈷均價假設在35,000-40,000美元/噸之間。

維持公司礦產品產量假設不變。公司計劃在2019年生產1.45-1.60萬噸等量金屬的鉬精礦,0.9-1.0萬噸等量金屬的鎢精礦,Northparke生產3.0-3.2萬噸礦產銅,Tenke生產17.0-20.0萬噸礦產銅和1.65-1.90萬噸礦產鈷。公司的生產穩定,我們維持公司礦產品產量假設不變。

上調公司目標價至2.90港元,維持“中性”評級。

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