北京首都機場股份(0694.HK)更新報告：冬春航季轉場分流5.5%時刻，維持“增持”評級，目標價 10.68 港元
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
目標價：10.68 港元
本報告導讀： 冬春航季 5.5%航班轉場大興機場，符合預期。2020 年夏秋航季將大規模轉場，2021 年為旅客吞吐量最低點，預計仍將達 7883 萬人次。
摘要：
新航季轉場分流符合預期，維持“增持”評級。新航季首都機場時刻 分流 5.5%，與轉場規劃一致。預計 2019-21 年旅客吞吐量 1.00、0.92、 0.79 億人次。維持 2019-2021 年預測 EPS 人民幣 0.51、0.41、0.34 元。 綜合 DCF 估值法和可比公司 PB 法，維持目標價 10.68 港元。
新航季按規劃轉場。2019-20 年冬春航季首都機場時刻數量同比減少 5.5%，其中內地時刻減少 4.1%，國際和港澳台時刻減少 7%。國際和 港澳台時刻降幅略大是全日本空輸服務、日本航空、港龍航空等減少 航班所致。轉場大興機場的外航僅為英國航空、芬蘭航空、馬來西亞 航空等，其餘外航在大興機場為新增時刻。
2020 年夏秋航季為轉場高峯期。一是民航局規劃該航季東航和南航轉 場 50%以上，廈門航空和重慶航空全部轉場。二是初期大興機場航班 和運力較少，客座率和票價水平有望較高，吸引部分任選一場和可兩 場運行航司轉場。隨着大興機場航班增加，客座率和票價可能下降， 外航轉場意願減弱。三是 2020 年夏秋航季轉場可獲得較高比例的時 刻獎勵。
2021 年旅客吞吐量 7883 萬人次。2021 年轉場分流將達到最大值，航 班和旅客吞吐量分別達到 42.6 萬架次和 7883 萬人次，相比 2018 年 減少 31%和 22%。其中 2021 年國際和港澳台旅客吞吐量 2524 萬人 次，降幅較小主要是國際和港澳台時刻轉場較少、飛機大型化、航班 執行率和客座率提高等因素所致。
風險提示。關税政策與免税政策變動風險、收購關聯方資產定價風險、 持續關聯交易定價風險、轉場航班量超預期風險、民航機場收費政策 調整風險和擴建資本開支超預期風險。
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