融創中國(1918.HK)2019年10月銷售點評:銷售高增,土儲豐富,彈性十足,維持“強推”評級,目標價 60.00 港元
機構:華創證券
評級:強烈推薦
目標價:60.00 港元
事件:
11 月 5 日,融創中國公佈,2019 年 10 月公司實現合同銷售金額 644.3 億元,同 比增長 23.3%;實現合同銷售面積 438.9 萬平方米,同比增長 22.2%。合同銷售 均價 14,680 元/平米,同比增長 0.9%。1-10 月,公司累計實現簽約金額 4,339.2 億元,同比增長 16.9%;實現累計簽約面積 2,970.7 萬平方米,同比增長 22.5%。
點評:
10 月銷售 644.3 億、同比+23%,高基數下保持高增,全年目標 5,500 億元 10 月銷售金額 644.3 億元,環比+2.4%、同比+23.3%;銷售面積 438.9 萬平米, 環比+2.0%、同比+22.2%,高基數階段銷售仍保持靚麗;銷售均價 14,680 元/平 米,環比+0.4%、同比+0.9%。1-10 月,累計銷售金額 4,339.2 億元,同比+16.9%, 較前值+1.1pct,克而瑞排名位居行業第四,排名較上月持平,考慮到推盤和銷 售高峯期集中在四季度,後續銷售排名有望保持領先;累計銷售面積 2,970.7 萬平米,同比+22.5%,較前值-0.1pct;累計銷售均價 14,610 元/平米,同比-4.6%。 公司 19H2 預計可售貨值約 5,722 億元,可售充裕。全年計劃銷售 5,500 億元, 對應同比+19.4%,對應 19H2 可售貨值去化率約 59%,考慮到公司佈局聚焦於一 二線城市及環一線熱點城市,預計完成全年銷售目標難度不大。
把握窗口期積極拿地,土儲豐富、質優價低,保障後續銷售和結算利潤率 按 18 年末土儲 1.66 億方、19H1 末土儲 2.04 億方、19H1 結轉建面 536 萬方、假 設並表比例 60%、均價 1.45 萬元/平米,估算 19H1 拿地建面約 4,693 萬方,對應 貨值約6,805億元;19Q1公司精準把握拿地窗口期,招拍掛拿地平均溢價率21%, 19Q2 嚴控拿地標準,規避拿高價地風險。截至目前,公司總土儲 2.13 億方,對 應貨值 2.82 萬億元,一二線貨值佔比 83%,權益土儲 1.36 億方,平均土地成本 4,307 元/平米,佔比 19H1 銷售均價僅 29.6%。公司土儲充裕、成本低、聚焦於 一二線,保障後續穩健發展和結算利潤率,並預計後續拿地壓力較小。
投資建議:銷售高增,土地豐富,彈性十足,重申“強推”評級 融創中國堅持深耕一二線,以逆週期擴張策略,成功在 15-17 年逆勢加槓桿擴 張,並藉以併購擴張的標籤優勢,打造了厚實優質土儲以及低廉土地成本的強 大優勢,利於實現快週轉及高毛利率,預示後續銷售和業績“量質提升”,同時 隨業績集中釋放,淨負債率望顯著下降、帶動融資成本下行,形成錦上添花。 此外,公司作為行業龍頭之一也有望充分受益“融資、拿地、銷售”集中度三重 跳增。我們維持公司 2019-21 年每股收益預測 5.69、7.38、9.57 元,目前對應 19/20 年 PE 僅 6.1/4.7 倍,我們繼續看好公司銷售和業績的持續雙雙高增,維持目標 價 60.00 港元,重申“ 強推 ”評級。
風險提示:房地產市場銷量超預期下行,行業資金超預期收緊。

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.