《大行報告》高盛引述蒙牛(02319.HK)料本季毛利率會受壓 因原料成本上升
高盛發表報告,指該行昨日(5日)及今天(6日)在深圳舉行中國投資論壇,獲得蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)投資者關係經理吳柳英出席論壇,公司管理層透於今年下半年銷售按年增長鞏固,與今年上半年水平接近,但核心營運毛利率擴展幅度小於原定按年擴50個基點目標,主要受累原奶價格上升(下半年按年漲8%),蒙牛指未來會持續控制操作費用比率,以抵銷原料成本上升影響。
該行指,蒙牛原定下半年冀擴展營運毛利率50個基點,但由於下半年原奶價格按年漲8%,令擴展幅度較少,據公司指原奶價格每上升2%,會對集團毛利率構成60個基點的負面影響。
蒙牛管理層展望第四季,基於原料成本上升,料公司毛利率會受壓,將會控制銷售成本、綜合開銷及行政管理費用,但或不足以完全滿足原定毛利率擴展目標。但無論如何,公司料營運水平銷售增長仍鞏固。
蒙牛管理層料明年銷售目標或為雙位數字增長,毛利率持續擴張,基於原奶價格上升預期,公司會採取更嚴格的推廣投資。高盛維持蒙牛「中性」投資評級,及目標價31.4元,此相當預測2020年市盈率24倍。
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