里昂:下調國泰(0293.HK)目標價至12.1港元 評級“買入”
里昂發表的研究報告指,國泰航空(00293.HK)受香港局勢影響,短期展望仍具挑戰,維持對其貨運業務負面看法,對其客運及收益率看法亦更趨悲觀,並下調了國泰2019及2020年的盈測,認為客運業務下行壓力在明年上半年仍會持續,但料受惠燃料成本向下,公司料仍能維持盈利,將其目標價由12.4港元降至12.1港元,維持“買入”評級,認為其估值吸引。
該行指出,9月訪港旅客量按年急跌34%,雖然期內以客運收益公里數計增長持平,反映下行因素有限,但認為客運業務陰霾仍在,而受環球貿易糾紛持續影響,貨運業務亦持續疲弱,並呈連續十一個月收縮。
里昂認為,受香港的不確定性影響,現時估計客運需求何時見底有難度,將公司2019年客運增長預測由2%降至1%,並將2020年的增長預測由3%降至持平,同時亦將其2019及2020年客運收益率預測調整至分別跌4%及2%。該行分別將公司2019及2020年盈利預測分別削43%及48%,預期2021年將見強勁復甦,雖然該行沒有為其半年業績作正式預測,但現時估計今年下半年盈利將為5.33億元並已見底,之後明年將逐步復甦,到2021年將重拾增長。

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