法巴:上調正榮地產(6158.HK)目標價至6.43港元 重申“買入”
法國巴黎銀行發佈最新研報,將正榮地產(6158.HK)2019年預測資產淨值調高3.6%至每股14.3港元,目標價上調至每股6.43港元,較每股資產淨值折讓55%,重申“買入”評級。
法國巴黎銀行表示,預期公司2019-2021年盈利將按年增長66%/36%/27%至人民幣32/44/56億。主要原因在於公司此前合約銷售增長迅猛,及已售待結轉銷售達約人民幣1,000億,預期2019-2021收入可按年增長39%/31%/27%;另一方面,公司毛利率持續改,聯合營項目開始有盈利貢獻,預計2019年貢獻人民幣2-3億。
歸母核心利潤大漲,降杆槓明顯
據披露,正榮地產2018年錄得歸母核心利潤人民幣19.5億,同比大增71%,超出法國巴黎銀行預期5%。
強勁的盈利增長主要受益於收入按年增長32%及毛利率改善1.7個百分點。法國巴黎銀行指出,本次業績最亮眼的是公司杆槓大幅下降,淨負債比率由2017年的183.2%大幅下降至2018年的74%(按總權益計算)。
購地加速,銷售規模增長
截止2018年年底,正榮地產共有土地儲備約2,500萬平方米,總貨值約人民幣4,200億。公司2019年的銷售目標是人民幣1,300億(按年增加20%),總可售貨值人民幣2,000億(佔總貨值約50%),意味着65%去化率。
公司計劃加快購地步伐以支撐其未來銷售增長,預期2019年購地預算為人民幣300億。因此,法國巴黎銀行預期公司2019年的淨負債比率將輕微上升至78%,依然維持在70%-80%水平。
利潤率將繼續改善
法國巴黎銀行預期正榮地產2019-2021的毛利率將繼續改善至23.9-24.9%。
主要由於公司成本低廉的土地儲備,2017/2018年新增土儲成本佔售價分別為25%/28%。公司計劃減少成本高的信託融資比例及延長其債務還款期,將融資成本控制在7.5%或以下,以致資本化利息開支減少;現時合約銷售額的毛利率約在25%。

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