中國建材(3323.HK)2019年三季報點評：淡季盈利超預期，資產負債表繼續改善；維持“增持”評級，目標價 12.19 港元
機構：國泰君安
本報告導讀： 公司公佈 2019 年三季報，資產質量繼續改善，盈利彈性有望進一步顯現，維持“增 持”評級。
摘要：
維持“增持”評級：公司公佈 2019 年三季報，實現收入 1831.43 億元， 同比增長 17.09%；歸母淨利潤 104.28 億元，同比增長 36.14%，符合預 期。我們維持公司 2019-2021 年業績預測 130.02、169.76、209.57 億 元，維持目標價 12.19 港元。
三季度淡季不淡，盈利低點大幅抬升。2019 年前三季度，全國累計水泥 產量 16.91 億噸，同比增長 6.9%，我們判斷公司銷量也隨之明顯抬升。9 月全國水泥產量創年內第二高峯（僅次於 5 月），結合此前的 7 月水泥需 求歷史上首次超越 6 月，而 8 月數據近 3 年首次與 4 月相當，需求端是 明顯超過市場預期的。受益於需求端旺盛，Q3 價格基本維持了 Q2 的水 平，週期性波動明顯弱化，而進入 9 月後，全國水泥進入量價齊升階段， 全面提漲兩輪，公司盈利 Q4 有望繼續提升。
公允價值變動收益帶動盈利大增，兩材合併財務指標繼續好轉；聯營公 司投資收益繼續增加。受合併後財務梳理影響，前三季度公允價值變動 淨收益 5.56 億,而 18Q1-Q3 為-12.30 億，帶動盈利大幅增長。截至報告期 末，公司在手現金比年初增長 49.97 億元至 327.55 億元；資產負債率同 比下降 4.1 個百分點至 67.00%。
股份公司層面整合完成，子公司層面整合有望加速。2019 年前三季度公 司投資收益 15.65 億元同增 13.21%。我們認為石膏板及玻纖 19Q1 盈利 能力全年底點已現，隨着地產竣工端復甦及玻纖行業逐步消化新增產能， 未來投資收益有望逐步增長。隨着新中建材股份公司層面整合順利完成， 我們判斷公司後續工作重心有望放在整合下屬上市子公司（2017 年底中 建材集團向證監會承諾 3 年內解決旗下上市公司同業競爭問題），水泥板 塊三家上市公司（天山股份、祁連山、寧夏建材）及玻纖板塊（中國巨石、 中材科技）整合有望加速
風險提示：國家環保政策放寬、水泥需求斷崖式下滑。
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