植耀辉: 气氛利好美股再创新高 港股27,300点阻力大
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,美国上月非农就业新增职位胜预期,个别道指成份股如苹果股价亦再创新高,加上继续憧憬中美贸易达成初步协议,上周五(1日)美股高开後持续上扬,标普500指数在五个交易日内第三度创收市新高,最终收报3,066点,上升29点或0.97%,道指更升301点或1.11%,收报27,347点,纳指上升94点或1.13%,收报8,386点。
全周计,道指累升1.44%,纳指累升1.74%,标普500指数累升1.47%。展望本周,大概有80间标普500指数成分股企业公布季绩,包括迪士尼及高通等;经济数据方面则包括ISM服务业采购经理指数。
港股方面,11月首个交易日有不俗表现,恒指上升194点,收报29,100点。现时後市最大关注点仍在於中美贸易是否能有好消息宣布,而月中腾讯(00700.HK)业绩亦是焦点,另阿里巴巴本月是否会来港上市亦颇受投资者关注。但预期恒指27,300点亦即前高位附近会有相当大阻力。
另外,政府统计署公布,本港9月零售业总销货价值临时估计为299亿元,按年跌18.3%,较市场预期之跌幅25.6%为佳,亦较8月跌22.9%有所收窄;当中非民生消费类别表现持续疲弱,珠宝首饰、钟表及名贵礼物销货价值下跌40.8%、百货公司货品跌25.6%、药物及化妆品跌21.7%、服装跌26.3%、鞋类、有关制品及其他衣物配件跌16.6%,反映情况仍未能过於乐观。不过,近期本地零售股却出现反弹,除了追落後因素外,亦不排除是与憧憬最坏时间已过有关。笔者相信,现阶段「博反弹」机会似乎仍言之尚早,因现时消费以至投资意欲未见改善,本地政经局势暂亦未见明朗,恐怕相关零售板块业务表现仍难扭转,故现阶段并不建议投资者吸纳相关股份。
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