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美銀美林:重申融創(1918.HK)“買入”評級 目標價45港元
格隆匯 11-01 15:32
美銀美林發表的研究報告指,據內地傳媒報道融創中國(1918.HK) 潛在收購兩家項目公司的51%權益,涉及土儲2000-3000萬平方米,主要位於成都外圍,涉資150億元人民幣。若成功料交易將於11月底前完成,相信可擴大融創的土地儲備約10%,為未來增長做準備。該行重申對融創“ 買入 ”評級,認為其估值吸引,目標價45港元,相信其合同銷售增長在第四季加速至30%,而公司在土地併購時間點方面亦具長期優勢。
該行相信公司很大可能會收購相關目標,主要因為現時目標與融創有合作,加上亦符合公司擴充土儲及可持續收入的策略。估算相關目標的住宅部分利潤水平強勁,料毛利率達37-46%,而淨利潤率則達15-18%,但長遠其盈利能力會受非住宅投資拖累,情況與萬達收購文旅項目相若。
美銀美林稱融創今年上半年花費1750億元人民幣增加土儲,但第三季僅花360億元人民幣,假如成功收購目標公司,相信將縮減在公開市場拿地。該行估計到年底公司的淨負債水平應跌至150-170%的可控水平,並估計第四季其合同銷售增長將加快至按年升30%(今年首三季增長為16%),以達至全年銷售目標5500億元人民幣。考慮到其槓桿較高,加上對在岸債有較高的依賴,認為公司相對其他同業更容易受人行下調基準利率的影響。

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