新天綠色能源(0956.HK)：三季度業績略受挫，費用上升，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
前三季度收入大幅增長，歸母淨利增速放緩
公司披露了2019年前三季度業績數據。主營業務收入同比大幅增長25.8%至人民幣80.85億元，前三季度公司毛利率下降2.5個百分點，歸母淨利潤同比增長11.9%。歸母淨利增速放緩主要是由：第三季度風電發電量較低，毛利較低的燃氣板塊佔比增高，以及所得税費用的大幅上升所致。
雖三季度風資源差，但風電發電量增速優於同業
公司前三季度風電發電量6,153GWh，同比增長14.4%。根據最新公司的累計風電裝機容量數據，2019年前三季度有效裝機容量較去年同期高約15-16%，而且從各省發電量數據可看到，東南地區受到風資源差影響，發電小時數不及去年同期。不過由於公司體量較小，相對新增裝機佔比更大也更加穩定，其發電量增長幅度要高於風電運營商同業公司。
銷氣量快速增長，聯營公司收益暫時受挫
公司前三季度總銷氣量21.4億立方米，同比增長25.25%。燃氣板塊未來增速持續超過風電板塊，收益佔比逐漸提高。量價方面，隨着國家管網公司成立以及上游氣源逐步擴大，市場成熟度將進一步提高，公司作為河北省最大燃氣分銷商有望迎來量價齊升局面。此外，公司參股的京唐LNG接收站前三季度收益出現下滑，聯營和合營公司收益同比減少27%。
所得税費用上升明顯，未來緩慢上升
公司前三季度所得税費用為15.98億元，同比增長83.4%。有效税率17%，同比上升近6個百分點。我們認為主要原因是三季度風電板塊運由於來風較差出現部分虧損，以及燃氣板塊佔比增高。據我們測算，隨着風機脱出減免税期，2019年公司風電板塊有效税率約為13.5%，整體有效税率未來呈緩慢穩步上升趨勢。
盈利預測和投資評級
我們預測公司 2019-2021年EPS為人民幣0.368/0.407/0.448元。雖然暫時受風資源差影響導致業績低於預期，但未來燃氣、風電板塊業績增長性確定高。基於2019年7倍市盈率給予合理價值2.86港元/每股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
燃氣供應緊張，風電裝機新增不及預期，來風情況低於預期風險。
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