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中國國航(0753.HK):2019年第3季度因成本節省而增長,維持“收集“評級,目標價至7.54港元
格隆匯 11-01 08:43

機構:國泰君安

評級:收集

目標價:7.54港元

中國國航2019年第3季度淨利潤同比增長4.4%至人民幣36.23億元,大致符合預期。公司通過節省成本來實現利潤增長,其中低油價和減少的海運保費使燃油成本下降。對民航發展基金的貢獻減少也節省了約人民幣2億元。然而,由於2019年第3季度客運收益率下降拖累收入同比下降2.3%,國內和國際航線均同比略有下降。淨利率同比上升0.6個百分點至9.6%。

我們分別下調2019/2020/2021年淨利潤預測12.0%/11.2%/12.1%。我們主要降低了客運收益率假設,以應對更具挑戰性的環境。管理層預計2020年國內/國際航線運力分別增長6%/8%,運力增長的指引大致符合我們的預期。因此,我們維持運力增長假設不變。

我們維持投資評級為“收集”,但因下調盈利而下調目標價至7.54港元。我們的目標價相當於1.0倍2019年市淨率和0.9倍2020年市淨率。由於估值偏低,我們仍然認為公司具有吸引力。我們的估值僅略低於其長期平均值,因此我們認為這是適當的。

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