上海電氣(2727.HK):2019年前9個月盈利同比增2.0%,重申“買入“評級,目標價至3.50港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:3.50港元
2019年前三季度盈利同比升2.0%至人民幣22.12億元,差於預期。公司於第三季度的收入和淨利潤分別同比增長19.5%和下滑12.8%。第三季度業績差於預期。第三季度的毛利率同比回落4.1個百分點至17.3%並將公司於前三季度的綜合毛利率推低至19.0%,同比回落1.0個百分點。各業務分部的三季度運營數據未有披露。
2019年前9個月的新增訂單同比上升17.7%至人民幣1,173億元。值得注意的是期內風電設備和環保設備的新增訂單分別同比激增了100.5%和274.0%至人民幣135.1億元和人民幣137.1億元。截至2019年9月底,公司的在手訂單達人民幣2,641.4億元(其中尚未生效訂單達人民幣709.8億元),較2018年末的水平上升14.7%。
國內於2019年前9個月對電源工程的投資同比上升6.0%至人民幣1,797億元。其中,對火電/水電/核電/風電的電源工程投資分別同比下降28.9%/上升30.2%/下降29.7%/上升72.8%。國內於前9個月對可再生能源的投資達到了期內總電源工程投資額約79%,同比上升10個百分點。
我們重申“買入”的投資評級但下調目標價至3.50港元。鑑於上海電氣龐大的在手訂單,持續的改革以及企業轉型,我們維持對上海電氣較為樂觀的看法。我們的新目標價相當於15.0倍/13.8倍/12.7倍的2019-2021年市盈率或0.8倍/0.8倍/0.7倍2019-2021年市淨率。

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