安踏體育(2020.HK)：運動品牌王者，Q3運營表現繼續亮眼，維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構：東興證券
評級：強烈推薦
報告摘要：
事件：日前公司發佈三季度經營數據，其中安踏主品牌零售額取得10%-20%的中段增長，FILA品牌零售額取得50%-55%的增長，其他品牌（不包括AmerSports）取得30-35%的增長。
三季度各品牌經營數據良好，展運動品牌王者風範。在整個服飾行業承壓的大環境下，公司三季度的零售流水維持較高增速：其中安踏主品牌零售額取得10%-20%的中段增長，較上半年的低雙位數有提速；FILA品牌面臨2018Q3超90%增速的高基數，仍取得超50%的零售增速。單三季度，安踏主品牌庫銷比維持4-5之間，FILA品牌庫銷比5-6之間，顯示了渠道健康的庫存狀況。兩個主要品牌通過長期的運營，保持了良好的零售折扣，三季度分別為72折、8折。公司最早實施零售導向的發展模式，其中FILA品牌採取全直營模式，目前平均店效80萬/月，在渠道相率方面甚至超越國際一線品牌，顯示了安踏作為運動品牌王者的風範。
多品牌運動服飾航母，渠道、供應鏈管理能力優異穩健前行。我們認為公司的核心看點在於：
1）品牌質優。主品牌通過近幾年產品提升和新興營銷推動，在國產品牌中建立了明顯的品牌優勢；併購品牌（包括FILA在內），共同的特點是品牌質優但在併購前運營情況差，安踏對這些品牌管理賦能，重煥品牌活力。
2）產品進步。公司近幾年在研發方面投入力度大，運動鞋尤其在籃球鞋方面自主技術進步明顯，KT系列鞋認可度逐代提升。
3）渠道供應鏈壁壘愈加深厚。公司在行業內首先實施實施零售導向的發展模式，渠道效率在行業內優勢明顯；公司多品牌策略積累一批優質供應商，公司亦在生產研發方面持續投入，使得公司在供應鏈品質和效率方面均有提升。
投資建議：公司持續表現出良好的渠道運營狀況，公司多品牌戰略使得公司發展空間廣闊，我們在運動服飾行業報告中上調了對公司的盈利預測，並維持此盈利預測：預計公司2019-2021年實現營業收入308.24、381.11、452.26億元，歸母淨利潤分別為56.29、72.18、86.71億元，對應EPS為2.02元、2.60元、3.12元人民幣，對應PE分別為31.90X、24.88X、20.71X。維持“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示:1、宏觀經濟壓力下服裝行業繼續承壓；2、行業競爭加劇。
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