美高梅中國(2282.HK)：2019年第3季度EBITDA同比增長38.6%，但未能達到我們的預期
機構：國泰君安
評級：買入
目標價：13.90港元
美高梅中國（以下簡稱“公司”）控股股東，美高梅國際酒店集團（MGMUS），公佈其2019年第3季度未經審計財務結果（其中包括了公司的細分財務信息）。公司2019年第3季度主要財務指標如下：
在2019年第3季度，美高梅中國市場份額增加，總收入同比上升21.5%至57.77億港元，而第3季度澳門博彩業毛收入同比下降4.1%。美高梅中國2019年第3季度收入符合我們的預期（比預期好0.3%）。強勁的收入增長主要是由於美獅美高梅在2018年2月開業後，其業務運營不斷擴大。公司主場地賭枱贏額同比增長47%，主要由於美獅美高梅於2019年增加25張新賭枱，以及賭枱贏率上升5.6個百分點所致。貴賓賭枱贏額同比增加5%，主要由於美獅美高梅的貴賓博彩區於2018年第3季度末開業以及貴賓賭枱贏率有所上升所致。
美高梅中國2019年第3季度經調整EBITDA同比增長38.6%至15.49億港元，差於我們的預期9.7%。主要由於美獅美高梅的運營逐漸步入正軌，公司經調整EBITDA利潤率同比增長3.3個百分點至26.8%，但仍低於預期。在物業層面，美獅美高梅的經調整EBITDA同比增長433.3%至6.929億港元，經調整EBITDA利潤率為24.3%（2018年第3季度僅為9.6%）。對於美高梅澳門而言，由於收入下降，經調整EBITDA同比下降13.3%至8.556億港元，經調整EBITDA利潤率為29.2%，同比增加0.2個百分點，高於美獅美高梅。
由於公司盈利不及預期，我們可能會在下一份公司報告中下調我們的盈利預測和目標價。我們目前對美高梅中國的投資評級為“買入”，目標價為13.90港元。美高梅中國的股價最新收報12.46港元。公司第3季度的博彩總收入增長大幅跑贏市場，導致美高梅中國的市場份額從2018年第2季度的7.8%增至2019年第3季度的10.2%。然而，成本控制不及我們的預期，因此公司的EBITDA沒有到達我們的預測。
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