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宏利投资管理预期联储局明年3月或被迫再减息
阿思达克 10-31 17:24

美国联储局一如市场预期减息25个基点,宏利投资管理首席经济师兼宏观经济策略部主管Frances Donald表示,联储局主席鲍威尔向市场发出颇为强烈的讯号,於三次利率「中期调整」後将暂时停止再减息,选择观望一段日子。惟他指出,地缘政治风险改善也是该局采取观望态度的原因之一,认为环球增长趋於平稳,未来甚至再加速,以及金融体系状况维持宽松,部份股票继续上升,以及美元汇价相对上维持上落格局,预期联储局或最快於2020年3月,在不情愿的情况下被迫再减息。

宏利投资管理提醒,在美国制造业衰退或否蔓延至服务业及就业市场,有理由相信若就业市场持续恶化,足以令联储局再减息。

至於不久将来会否出现加息?他预期在未来数年将不会出现,因通胀水平不足以支持联储局加息,从长期走势的角度看,利率将在一段非常长时间维持低企,认为这方面的重要性比预期减息25基点或未来六个月会否作多次减息更高。他续指,现实情况是目前处於低增长、低通胀的环境,长远来看将会妨碍联储局实施利率正常化的能力。

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