一文了解大行對中銀(02388.HK)季績後最新目標價及觀點
中銀香港(02388.HK)今日股價靠穩，券商普遍指上季績佳，但關注第四季業績表現。中銀昨日(30日)收市後公布首三季業績，期內提取減值準備前之淨經營收入按年升7.4%至442.69億元。若計入外匯掉期合約資金收入或成本，淨利息收入為321.75億元，按年增加10.5%，主要由淨息差擴闊及平均生息資產增長帶動。首三季提取減值準備前的經營溢利按年增長7.3%至326億元；計入外匯掉期合約的資金收入或成本後的淨息差按年上升10個基點至1.7%。
中銀第三季，集團提取減值準備前之淨經營收入為151億元，按季上升3%。若計入外匯掉期合約的資金收入或成本，淨利息收入按季增加1.8%，其中淨息差按季上升1個基點至1.72%。提取減值準備前的經營溢利則為109.59億元，按季上升2.3%。
【首三季費用收入按年跌近5%】
中銀香港指，受全球經濟放緩和中美貿易摩擦的衝擊，以及近期社會活動影響，香港經濟增長動力顯著下降，旅遊、酒店、零售和進出口貿易受到較大影響，失業率回升。雖然股票市場波動性增加，但金融系統維持有效運作，銀行體系保持穩健。
摩根士丹利指，中銀提取減值準備前淨經營收入較預期高6%，非由淨利息收入或費用收入推動，而是由波動性收入來源推動。淨息差按季升1個基點，信貸損失較預期少，費用收入按季跌17%，存款按季收縮2%。該行指出，中銀香港估值相對其他本港同業吸引，並有5.5厘股息，但第四季及2020年盈利狀況將更困難，基於利率下跌及香港經濟放慢，維持對中銀香港「與大市同步」評級，目標價26元。
【高盛指中銀香港非恐懼中那麼糟】
高盛指出，中銀香港季度收益勝該行預期，受惠高交易收益，成本大致符合預期，並導致提取減值準備前淨經營收入勝預期。該行又指，中銀信貸質量穩定，信貸成本按季顯著下降，後者令看淡者感到意外。該行相信中銀股價對季績反應正面，整體顯示中銀香港業務並非如恐懼中般差勁，亦為該行看好中銀香港的理由。高盛維持對中銀香港「買入」評級，目標價35.1元。
本網最新綜合8間券商對其投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
匯豐環球研究│買入│39.8元
瑞銀│買入│39.1元
高盛│買入│35.1元
美銀美林│買入│31.7元
摩根大通│增持│30.6元花旗│中性│28元
海通國際│中性│28元-27.35元
摩根士丹利│與大市同步│26元券商│觀點
匯豐環球研究│季積強勁，關注第四季情況
瑞銀│費用收入遜預期，但整體業績勝預期
高盛│季績勝預期，建議買入
美銀美林│季績強勁，息差及信貸成本穩定
摩根大通│提取減值準備前淨經營收入及信貸成本稍勝預期
花旗│在挑戰性宏觀環境下盈利勝預期
海通國際│淨息差改善，但費用收入疲弱
摩根士丹利│溢利勝預期源於波動因素，香港經濟放緩影響初現
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