粵海投資(0270.HK):市場波動正不斷上升,維持“收集“評級,目標價18.20港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:收集
目標價:18.20港元
2019年前三季度收入同比升14.0%而淨利則同比跌2.0%。公司於前三季度的收入符合預期,但盈利不及預期。期內的收入增長主要受到表現較佳的水資源業務以及物業投資及發展業務所帶動,兩者共貢獻了期內近80%的收入。儘管2019年第三季度的淨利潤錄得了高單位數的同比下滑,但我們認為公司仍將實現我們當前約54億港元的2019全年的盈利預測,意味着公司於2019年將實現不低於7%的盈利增長。我們因此維持當前的盈利預測。
在國內的快速擴張將推動公司未來的增長。公司於報告期末時歸在其它水資源業務分部內的總設計供水能力為每日8.584百萬噸,而總污水處理能力則為每日1.291百萬噸,其產能分別較2019年初時上升了63%和13%。強勁的產能擴張的背後是進取的收購以及對現有生產設施的升級改造。我們預計公司於未來仍將通過持續地併購和不斷升級現有生產設施以繼續提升其在國內的供水及污水處理的產能。
我們重申“收集”的投資評級但調升目標價至18.20港元。考慮到公司水資源業務和物業投資及發展業務的高增長前景,我們重申對公司“收集”的投資評級。由於市場波動的不斷上升將迫使投資者尋找安全避風港,我們調升公司目標價至18.20港元,相當於22.1倍/20.0倍/19.3倍2019至2021年市盈率或2.8倍/2.7倍/2.5倍2019至2021年市淨率。

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