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新天綠色能源(0956.HK):19年首三季業績大致合乎預期,下調評級至“增持”
格隆匯 10-30 16:37

機構:中泰國際

評級:增持

首三季股東淨利潤同比增長11.9%

公司昨日公佈了按中國會計準則制訂的19年第三季業績(注:公司中期及全年業績則按國際會計準則制訂)。19年首三季股東淨利潤同比增長11.9%至人民幣10.5億,相等於我們全年預測的70.0%,大致合乎我們預期。中國風電板塊於今年第三季普遍受到風資源不理想影響,但是我們相信這只是暫時性。

市場不可忽視公司的天然氣分銷業務之潛力

另一方面,我們認為市場不可忽視公司的天然氣分銷業務之潛力。由於中俄東線於今年第四季開始運營,這將增加中國天然氣供應,並可激發天然氣需求。我們估計天然氣分銷業務所佔公司總毛利的比例將分別由2018年之26.6%上升至2019-2021年之28.6%、29.8%、31.2%。換言之,天然氣分銷業務的毛利將由2018年的人民幣7.6億增長至2021年的人民幣13.1億,複合年增長率達到20.0%,高於風電業務之同期11.4%增長率。

股價近期上升,下調評級至“增持”

我們維持盈利預測及由貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的2.80港元目標價(見圖表1和2),這對應5.6倍2020年市盈率和19.7%上升空間。經過股價近期上升後,我們相應地將評級由“買入”下調至“增持”。

風險提示:(一)項目開發延誤、(二)應收賬款風險、(三)併網電價下跌。

主要財務數據(人民幣百萬元)(更新至2019年10月28日)

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