长城汽车( 2333.HK ) ：三季报业绩超预期，看好公司业绩弹性，维持“增持”评级
机构：西部证券
评级：增持
核心结论
事件：公司发布2019年三季报，2019年前三季度实现营业收入625.8亿元，同比减少6.1%，实现归母净利润29.2亿元，同比减少25.7%。三季度单季实现营业收入212.0亿元，同比增长18.0%，实现归母净利润14.0亿元，同比大幅增长506.8%。三季报业绩超市场预期。
折扣收窄，产品结构优化，Q3毛利率18.5%，同比、环比提升3.5pct。公司业绩大幅增长的主要来源为毛利率的提升和费用率的下降。毛利率同比增长主要原因有：增值税税率的调整、产品结构的优化；环比增长的主要原因有：促销力度的降低、销量环比的提升及其带来的制造费用的下降。公司费用管控合理，销售、管理和财务三项费用率合计5.7%，同比下降2.7pct。
受益集中度提升、新车型密集发布，公司销量持续跑赢行业。2019年三季度以来公司密集推出旗下多款车型的年度改款，及全新车型VV7GT，发布皮卡炮品牌，2019年后续将继续推出年度款新车。2020年，公司还将推出全新平台的2款全新SUV、炮越野版、欧拉全新EV。公司密集推出新车型带来销量的稳步提升，另外，公司作为SUV龙头企业，受益于当前行业产能出清过程中的集中度提升，销量有望继续跑赢行业。
公司单车盈利处于历史低位，未来向上弹性空间大。受行业整体不景气影响，公司2018Q3单车净利润大幅下滑至1200元。公司通过产品结构的改善、降本增效和密集推出新车型等措施，2019Q3单车净利润已稳步提升至6100元。公司三季报业绩超预期，中短期继续看好公司的龙头优势和业绩弹性，中长期国际化战略将为公司带来额外的市场空间，我们认为公司正处于新一轮上升期的起点，我们上调公司2019-2021年预测EPS至0.48/0.61/0.66元，按10月28日H股股价6.23港元，对应H股11.8/9.2/8.6倍PE，维持“增持”评级；按10月28日A股股价8.69元，对应A股18.3/14.3/13.3倍PE。
风险提示：新产品销售不及预期；价格战加剧
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