大摩:下調國藥(1099.HK)目標價至36.3港元 評級“增持”
大摩發表研究報告指,國藥(1099.HK)
收入和純利分別在第三季升27.1%及22.8%,但該行將其目標價由41港元降至36.3港元,以反映國家“
4+7帶量採購
”和集中採購政策帶來的潛在分銷壓力。該行將公司2019-21年每股盈利預期分別上調1%、下調6.1%及下調5.9%。第三季收入表現勝預期,但相信毛利會於2020及2021年下降,同時財務成本比率亦會上升(因仿製藥價格下調、分銷商利潤持平、更長的付款週期、需要作債務融資去支持對醫院業務發展)。根據以上調整,預期2018-21年盈利年複合增長率為11.6%。
該行維持國藥“
增持
”評級,因公司仍有領導地位,而且估值吸引,預期未來12-18個月會有更多來自創新藥和醫療技術分銷合約,可帶動股價。
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