東陽光藥(1558.HK)：三季度業績超預期，產品管線擴容助力可持續增長，維持“買入”評級
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
投資要點
事件：近日，公司發佈2019年第三季度財務情況，前三季度實現營業收入44.39億元人民幣，同比增長157.74%；歸母溢利及全面收益總額15.54億元人民幣，同比增長127.68%。
可威持續發力，三季度業績增長超預期：目前可威仍然是公司最核心的收入來源，佔比達到90%以上。今年以來，可威繼續保持強勁增長，主要緣於（1）銷售隊伍不斷壯大，學術推廣加強。（2）2018年衞健委發佈的《流行性感冒治療方案》將奧司他韋列為一線治療方案，有助於提升醫生對可威的認可度，品牌影響力不斷增強。（3）2018年可威順利進入基藥目錄，助力該產品在基層市場的開拓。可威增長仍有空間：（1）目前國內50%左右的流感治療市場被中成藥所佔據，可威的滲透率約為25%，相比之下仍有較大的替代空間。（2）2019版醫保目錄將可威的報銷範圍由“僅限甲流的確診患者使用”調整為“高危流感病人可使用”，擴大了適用人羣，有助於可威市場滲透率的繼續提升。（3）隨着未來使用人羣的擴大，可威有望通過切入流感預防市場帶來增量，進一步延長該產品的生命週期。
產品線快速擴容，有望受益帶量採購：除可威外的已上市產品中，爾同舒因渠道消化庫存今年上半年銷售額有所下滑，待庫存消化完成後有望恢復增長。同時，公司今年上半年收購33個仿製藥品種極大擴充公司產品線，這些品種有望藉助帶量採購實現銷售的快速增長。
近年將有多個產品集中獲批：（1）丙肝領域：磷酸依米他韋、磷酸依米他韋與索非布韋的聯合用藥、磷酸依米他韋與伏拉瑞韋的聯合用藥分別預計於2020、2020、2021年獲批；（2）糖尿病領域：重組人胰島素、精蛋白重組人胰島素注射劑（預混）、甘精胰島素、門冬胰島素30注射劑分別預計於2019、2021、2020、2021年獲批。
盈利預測和估值：考慮到公司三季度業績超預期以及良好的銷售勢頭，我們上調2019-2021年預測收入至58.14億元、71.99億元、90.42億元，同比增長131.6%、23.8%、25.6%，提升幅度分別為23.1%、22.9%、21.2%；上調2019-2021年預測歸母淨利潤至18.3億元、22.5億元、27.9億元，同比增長94.4%、22.6%、24.2%，提升幅度分別為39.9%、39.0%、38.0%。提高目標價至61港元，對應2019-2020年分別為13.5、11.0倍市盈率，20PEG僅為0.47，較現價有46.8%上升空間，維持買入評級。
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