長城汽車(2333.HK):2019年3季度基本面提振但估值不吸引
機構:國泰君安
長城汽車2019年第3季度淨利潤同比增長506.8%至人民幣1,400百萬元,好於市場和我們的預期。業績好於預期主要是由於收入增長,其中2019年第3季度的銷量同比增長12.4%及平均售價同比增長7.4%。改善主要來自哈弗F7。另一方面,毛利率同比上升3.5個百分點和環比上升2.6個百分點。總的來説,單台淨利潤上升至人民幣6,073元。
我們主要關注的是2020年的增長可持續性。我們擔心2020年的基本面改善是因為F7的影響減弱,以及SUV中新車貢獻的不確定性。此外,公司對SUV的依賴會因合資品牌的壓力而限制其增長潛力。
我們將2019年至2021年的淨利潤預測分別上調14.9%/13.7%/13.1%。我們微調了銷量預測,預計長城汽車今年將達到管理層的目標。在2019年3季度反彈之後,我們提高了2019年至2021年的毛利率預測。
我們上調投資評級至“減持”,因調高盈利預測而上調目標價至5.35港元。目標價相當於9.5倍2019年市盈率和9.2倍2020年市盈率。儘管2019年第3季度有強勁改善,但我們仍然對2020年的增長持謹慎態度,因F7的全年效應將在2020年消退,並且明年才推出的新產品也不確定能否帶來與F7一樣的成功。另一方面,公司目前估值高於均值的兩個標準差,我們認為估值過高。

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