華潤水泥控股 (1313.HK) 2019三季報點評：需求扭轉確認，Q4量價可期，維持“增持”評級
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
本報告導讀：
Q3兩廣市場雨水天氣扭轉，需求放量伴隨三輪提價，Q4量價可期。
摘要：
維持“增持”評級。公司2019年前三季度營收267.16億港元，同減3%；歸母淨利57.92億港元，同減4.9%，符合預期。Q3兩廣市場雨水天氣扭轉，Q4量價可期，維持2019-2020年業績80.16，88.10億港元預測，以2018年48%派息率假設，目前股息率高達6.6%，具相當安全邊際，維持目標價11.6港元，維持“增持”評級，繼續重點推薦。
Q3雨水天氣扭轉，Q4量價可期。Q3公司水泥熟料銷量2216萬噸，同增7.3%，主要受益兩廣8月後雨水天氣扭轉，季度內銷量增速或逐月上升。Q4期間H1被滯後的需求有望在趕工中進一步釋放。Q3水泥熟料均價360港元/噸同減5.3%但主要受匯兑影響，實際價格判斷同比約持平，8月雨水天氣扭轉後兩廣已經迎來三輪提價，且提價時間較早有助於抬升均價，Q4仍有再上層樓空間，Q4量價可期。
兩廣需求韌性樂觀，供需格局穩定。今年Q3較強需求或主要受益於兩廣市場強勁的基建補短板發力與較為穩定的地產投資。基建方面2020年將迎來“十三五”項目收尾期，並即將開始“十四五”大灣區建設落地期，兩廣尤其廣東雄厚的財政實力是建設落地的保障，需求有相當支撐；地產方面兩廣地區呈現着持續強勁的人口淨流入並擁有最好的人口結構，短期與長期地產需求確定性高。而市場較為擔心的兩廣地區新增產能因素目前投產前景仍非常不明朗，或會在礦山等因素下投產不及預期，因此判斷核心市場供需格局有望保持穩固。
高股息息率提供安全邊際，匯率風險充分釋放。根據2019歸母淨利80.16億港元預測，假設全年股息支付率持平H1期48.21%，以10月25日585億港元的市值來計算，公司目前2019股息率高達6.6%，為公司價值提供充分安全邊際。而從匯率風險來看，公司資產負債表上的匯率風險敞口較小，銷售端與採購端也同時用人民幣結算，匯率風險主要體現在人民幣盈利的縮水效應，目前已經得到相當釋放
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