華潤水泥控股(1313.HK)：Q3景氣回升，盈利持續性可期，維持“買入”評級，目標價9.21港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：9.21港元
投資要點
公司披露2019年前9個月業績：營業額267.16億港元，同比下降3.0%，毛利104.26港元，同比下滑4.9%，歸母淨利潤57.92億港元，同比下降4.9%。3季度錄得收入93億港元，同比增長3.1%,毛利39.27億港元，同比下滑0.1%，歸母淨利潤20.26億港元，同比下滑2.0%。
被雨水壓制的需求在8/9月份集中釋放，量價齊升。進入8月下旬，雨水逐漸減少，水泥銷量同比大幅反彈，Q3水泥熟料銷量同比增7.3%，其中8/9月份銷量同比分別增長4.7%和16.6%，需求增量主要來自前期基建項目。
人民幣貶值影響水泥直觀價格。Q3水泥熟料綜合售價339港元/噸，同比跌24港元（-6.6%），若剔除人民幣貶值的影響，我們測算均價同比跌11元（-3.3%）。板塊毛利率42.6%，同比下跌2.1個pct。9月中下旬以來，華南地區需求旺盛，庫位較低，陸續幾輪加價後，目前人民幣計的水泥價格絕對值已經趕超去年時點價。
人民幣貶值導致報表顯示的整體收入及利潤縮水，股東應占盈利57.92億港元，同比下降4.9%。
我們的觀點：目前庫位比較低，漲價條件良好，逆週期調控下基建有望加速趕工，四季度景氣無虞，全年利潤超過去年是大概率。展望2020年，我們認為華南水泥市場是當前全國供求關係最好的區域，背靠粵港澳大灣區水泥需求長期平穩增長，龍頭企業搭建高起點平台。華南市場真正面臨的風險點在於二梯隊企業積極擴張產能為華南市場的競爭格局帶來不確定，華潤、海螺及台泥一梯隊大集團企業的戰略值得重點跟蹤。
我們預計公司2019-2021年歸母淨利潤為80.41億、85.52億和88.86港元，最新收盤價對應2019E的PE為7.28X，潛在股息率可達6.6%，公司具有良好的派息政策及產業鏈延伸的優勢，我們預計華南四季度盈利能力仍會攀升，2020年新增產能可控，維持“買入”評級，目標價提高至9.21港元。
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